Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL TX...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a
tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this
evening, and especially across central Texas overnight.
...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight...
Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject
east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while
the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by
early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting
speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front
into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some
convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool
side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm
advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should
form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of
clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large
hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An
isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the
front.
Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across
central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the
primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse
rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong
deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of
supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5
inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this
convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the
surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado.
..Thompson/Jewell.. 02/10/2024
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/T2ZXvP
