Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and some
tornado threat are expected especially across parts of Texas this
afternoon and tonight, with other severe storms possible toward the
Lower Mississippi Valley on a more isolated basis.
...Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley...
A prominent upper trough over the Southwest Deserts early today will
continue northeastward over the southern Rockies as it takes on an
increasingly positive tilt through tonight. Semi-phased
polar/tropical jets will generally result in strengthening
deep-layer southwesterly winds across much of the southern tier of
the CONUS, as these winds will largely overlie and be parallel to a
frontal zone extending from west/south Texas northeastward to the
Lower Mississippi Valley.
Convection will be common along/north of this frontal zone for much
of the period, but a gradual increase in thunderstorms and intensity
are expected across the middle part of Texas into mid/late afternoon
through early evening, with an additional round of thunderstorm
intensification expected late tonight across the Edwards Plateau
vicinity. Strong deep-layer shear, highlighted by very
long/semi-straight hodographs in the cloud-bearing layer, will
support supercells, some of which could produce very large hail on a
localized basis, especially with this evening's storms. Some
damaging wind/tornado risk may also exist with storms occurring in
closer proximity to the front, although low-level winds/SRH will not
be overly strong.
Farther east, other more isolated/episodic severe storms will be
possible as far east as the Lower Mississippi Valley in vicinity of
the effective front, with severe storms most probable across this
region this evening into the overnight as frontal wave development
occurs across the region and southwesterly 1-3km AGL winds
strengthen. This could include at least some potential for hail/wind
and possibly a tornado.
..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/10/2024
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