Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms may occur from South Texas to the central
Gulf Coast region today and tonight. The best chance for a tornado
or two, and a few severe-caliber wind gusts, appears to be across
southern Louisiana and Mississippi.
...Central Gulf Coast including Louisiana/Mississippi...
An extensive northeast/southwest-oriented corridor of widespread,
repetitive, and generally linear convection is prevalent late this
morning across Mississippi and southeast Louisiana, with this
convection effectively defining the warm sector ahead of an upstream
front that parallels this convection. The net result should keep the
main surface-based potential for severe storms focused across
southeast Louisiana and far southern/southeast Mississippi, but even
so, cloud cover is prevalent in the warm sector and heating will
remain limited. Some short-term guidance suggests a modest
north-northwestward return of the warm sector is possible late
tonight, but this is questionable or at least uncertain owing to the
extensiveness of the convection/outflow, in addition to limited
prospects for meaningful near-frontal cyclogenesis. Regardless, some
stronger storms will persist near the composite zone of convective
regeneration, with deep-layer/low-level shear sufficient for bouts
of updraft rotation, with a related potential for localized wind
damage or a tornado.
...South Texas...
With the front off the Texas Coast, the surface-based severe threat
has diminished across this region, but strong/potentially severe
storms will still be possible, mainly tonight. The approach of the
upstream positive-tilt trough will influence increasing elevated
convection within the frontal zone, while convection is also
expected to increase near the Rio Grande and across the
International Border and move across Deep South Texas and southeast
Texas late tonight. Severe hail will be possible with the strongest
storms, in the presence of moderately steep mid-level lapse rates
and robust semi-unidirectional shear in the cloud-bearing layer.
..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/24/2024
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