Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast,
most notably across coastal Louisiana and Mississippi, and also over
parts of eastern Texas. Severe weather chances appear low at this
time.
...Synopsis...
An amplifying upper trough will move into the southern Plains today,
with an intense cyclonically curved midlevel speed max moving across
TX, reaching the Sabine Valley/ArkLaTex by 12Z Saturday. Meanwhile,
a relatively cool and stable surface air mass will remain over land,
with a coastal boundary along the TX and northern Gulf Coast. Weak
low pressure is expected to form overnight, moving from the western
Gulf toward LA/MS. Widespread convection will exist over the water,
with the cool surface air mass mitigating severe potential despite
increasing shear.
...Eastern TX...Coastal LA and MS...
Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing over the
northern Gulf of Mexico for much of the day, shifting east toward
the coastal FL Panhandle by evening. Generally weak southerly
low-level winds will maintain moisture advection northward toward
the coastal boundary, with clusters of storms over the Gulf of
Mexico likely intercepting much of the return flow. As such, mainly
elevated storms are forecast over land along the central Gulf Coast
during the day.
To the west, elevated instability will develop over much of eastern
TX and LA ahead of the upper trough, especially late in the day as
850 mb flow reaches 30 kt. A cold front will eventually intercept
this elevated instability, with a rash of convection developing
after 00Z across east TX, LA, and to the MS River. These storms may
increase in intensity during the evening as height falls persist and
a cold front pushes through.
Forecast soundings depict midlevel lapse rates around 6.5 C/km, only
modestly steep for the area, with increasing winds with height and
30-40 kt deep-layer effective shear. This could potentially support
small hail in the stronger cells.
..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/26/2024
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