Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms may occur today from South Texas to the
central Gulf Coast region. The best chance for a tornado or two, and
a few severe-caliber wind gusts, appears to be across southern
Louisiana and Mississippi.
...South Texas to the central Gulf Coast region...
Widespread convection is ongoing this morning from South Texas to
Mississippi, in the vicinity of a cold front that extends across
this region. While an outflow-reinforced push of the front has
moved into the northwestern Gulf, the otherwise slow-moving front
should become nearly quasi-stationary with time, as a short-wave
trough ejects northeastward across the southern Plains through the
period.
With the front off the Upper Texas Coast, and sliding slowly
southward across Deep South Texas, surface-based severe threat has
diminished across this area. Later in the period, nearer the
ejecting upper trough, additional/later thunderstorm development is
expected across portions of the Edwards Plateau and into parts of
South Texas. But, with these storms largely expected to be elevated
atop a post-frontal stable boundary layer, marginal hail would be
the primary severe risk with a couple of the strongest storms.
Farther east, ahead of the front, dewpoints are generally in the mid
60s across southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, with
low-level theta-e advection ongoing across the warm sector. Given
the low-level southeasterly flow field veering/increasing with
height, shear is sufficient for updraft rotation -- and potentially
a tornado or two along with gusty/damaging wind potential. Greatest
risk is apparent this morning and into the afternoon, across the
southeastern Louisiana vicinity. However, with cloud cover and
abundant precipitation expected to persist across this area as the
front moves only very slowly eastward at best, weak lapse rates --
and correspondingly limited CAPE -- should limit overall risk.
For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #86.
..Goss/Mosier.. 01/24/2024
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