Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, with some severe potential, are possible over
parts of the central Gulf Coast states.
...Gulf States...
Strong, negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across
OK late this evening. This feature will advance into the lower OH
Valley early in the period as a 90kt 500mb speed max translates
toward western KY by daybreak. Farther west, a digging short-wave
trough will approach the southern Rockies by 02/00z before shifting
slowly toward the High Plains. This evolution will result in weak
midlevel height rises across the Gulf States as the strongest core
of 500mb flow extends from west TX-southern MO-OH Valley.
At the surface, primary synoptic front is forecast to move off the
TX Coast, extending across the lower MS Valley. This wind shift will
gradually advance southeast, but do so slowly due to the lack of
upper support, and a relatively weak surface high centered over
northern MO. Additionally, while low-level warm advection will be
maximized early over the central Gulf States, some increase in the
LLJ is expected across the northwestern Gulf Basin into southern
LA/southern MS during the latter half of the period. In the absence
of meaningful large-scale support, and only partial boundary-layer
heating, it appears low-level warm advection will prove instrumental
in convective development much of the period.
Forecast soundings across the warm sector suggest modest buoyancy
will develop across southern LA into southern AL/extreme western FL
Panhandle. Scattered convection that evolves within this air mass
will do so within a sheared environment favorable for organized
updrafts -- potentially supercellular. Where surface dew points are
able to rise to near 70F, there is some risk for surface-based
updrafts; otherwise, much of the convection across this region will
be slightly elevated.
Latest guidance suggests several bouts of potentially robust
convection, both early and overnight, modulated by the LLJ. Gusty
winds and perhaps a brief tornado are the primary risks.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/01/2023
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