Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms with some severe, will be possible today over
southeast Texas. A few tornadoes are expected, along with hail and
isolated damaging wind gusts. Further north, into parts of east
Texas and southern Oklahoma, hail along with a few strong wind gusts
will also be possible.
...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest and
northern Mexico today. An associated 70 to 85 knot mid-level jet
will move eastward across northern Mexico and into west Texas by
this afternoon. Ahead of the mid-level jet, moisture advection will
occur across the Texas Coastal Plain. Surface dewpoints are forecast
to increase into the 65 to 70 F range from the middle Texas Coast
northward into the area west of the Houston Metro. As surface
heating takes place along and near the moist axis, MLCAPE is
forecast to increase into the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range. As the system
approaches, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will be maintained across
east Texas. Lift associated with the low-level jet will aid
convective development during the day over much of east Texas
extending northward into the Ark-La-Tex. A marginal severe threat
will be possible across much of this weakly unstable airmass
throughout the day.
Further south from the middle Texas Coast into Southeast Texas, the
environment will become favorable for supercells by around midday.
As surface dewpoints and low-level shear increase, Significant
Tornado Parameter is forecast to peak in the 4 to 5 range by early
to mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings just west of Houston at 21Z
have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity reaching about 325 m2/s2. This
will likely support a tornado threat associated with supercells that
form and move into the Houston area this afternoon. A small cluster
of tornadoes is expected across southeast Texas. Although damaging
wind gusts will also be possible, this threat will be associated
with supercell downdrafts and should remain isolated. There could
also be a localized large hail threat with supercells. The potential
for severe storms could continue into the evening as a convective
cluster moves from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/30/2023
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