Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTHERN
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast,
primarily Saturday morning.
...Southeast...
Broad upper ridge will influence much of the southeastern US the
first half of the period before weak height falls develop in
response to the approaching MS Valley trough Saturday night. This
flow regime favors seasonally strong southwesterly midlevel flow,
and low-level warm advection should be the primary instigator for
deep convection ahead of the trough.
Late this evening, a fairly large complex of deep convection has
evolved over the lower MS Valley, extending from LA into southern
MS, arcing into the northeast Gulf Basin. Some of this activity is
fairly robust, especially over southeast LA where surface dew points
have risen into the upper 60s to near 70F. Boundary-layer
modification is expected downstream of this activity, especially
across southern AL into the FL Panhandle. Latest speed/movement of
the MCS suggests the leading edge of the complex will be over
southern AL/western FL Panhandle at sunrise. LLJ should strengthen
into this region through 18z and wind profiles favor organized
convection. While the primary storm mode should be clusters/MCS,
some risk for embedded supercells exists. Where dew points rise into
the upper 60s to near 70F there will be a risk of surface-based
convection along with some potential for tornadoes.
Main severe threat will be prior to 18-19z, then the LLJ will
translate downstream into an increasingly hostile air mass less
favorable for robust updrafts.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/02/2023
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