Windy.com Temps | Gusts | WU KORD Data

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...

RADAR FULL MAP SCREEN

NEXRAD

STORMTRACK

Cardinal SAT

CHGOWX.COM



MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, November 5, 2023

SPC Nov 5, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE OR AND EXTREME NORTHWEST CA
COASTS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible later
this afternoon into tonight along the Oregon and extreme northwest
California coasts.

...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough over the northern Rockies this morning
will progress eastward to the upper Great Lakes by Tuesday morning.
Though low-level moisture will be limited along the path of this
trough, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient
midlevel moisture will support weak buoyancy rooted in the 850-700
mb layer (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg). Forcing for ascent in the left
exit region of the mid-upper jet could support some weak elevated
convection with isolated lightning flashes this evening near the
SD/ND border and overnight into WI. Lingering moisture/weak
buoyancy through the period could support isolated lightning flashes
across ID/southern MT and vicinity, per the 12z BOI sounding.

...OR/northwest CA coasts later this afternoon into tonight...
Water vapor imagery reveals a series of embedded shortwave troughs
moving generally eastward toward OR later today into tonight, with
multiple clusters of thunderstorms well offshore. A feed of
conditionally unstable low-midlevel lapse rates and weak buoyancy
(200-300 J/kg SBCAPE) will favor low-topped convection and
occasional lightning flashes this afternoon into tonight as the
waves progress inland, especially along the OR coast. Forecast wind
profiles show sufficient hodograph length and low-level curvature
for low-topped supercells with some potential to produce isolated
strong gusts and possibly a tornado or two.

..Thompson.. 11/05/2023


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/SyQ2NV