Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible along portions of the western/central
Gulf Coast, a small part of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the
lee of Lake Ontario.
...Southern US...
Northern Mexico short-wave trough is forecast to eject into west TX
by 14/00z, but a weaker low-amplitude short-wave trough may precede
this feature, at a lower latitude, ensuring the main surface low
holds off the TX Coast. Latest model guidance maintains the primary
surface baroclinic zone offshore through the period. Late this
evening, organized convection is noted along this boundary, roughly
50 miles east of Padre Island. As a result, the primary focus for
organized thunderstorms will remain just offshore. However, elevated
convection should evolve within a warm advection corridor from the
coastal Plain of TX into the LA Gulf Coastal region where forecast
buoyancy supports lightning.
Downstream, weak showers are currently moving inland along the
central FL Atlantic Coast. Forecast soundings maintain weak buoyancy
through the period as roughly 3km deep easterly flow will persist
Monday. Some of the deeper updrafts may generate lightning, but
overall this activity should remain isolated.
...Lower Great Lakes...
Strong 500mb speed max will translate southeast across lower MI into
central PA by late afternoon which will allow much cooler
temperatures to spread across the lower Great Lakes. Lapse rates
will steepen significantly as this occurs and weak buoyancy will
develop over the warmer waters of Lake Ontario. Some risk for
lightning will be noted with convection across this region.
..Darrow/Moore.. 11/13/2023
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