LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Gusty winds are possible with convection across the Southeast
Monday.
...Southeast...
Upper anticyclone will hold across the southwestern US Monday with
pronounced troughing expected across southeast Canada into the upper
OH Valley. At low latitudes, latest model guidance suggests a weak
disturbance will progress across the southern Appalachians early in
the period. This feature is currently evident on water-vapor imagery
over central KY/TN and subsequent movement into the Carolinas should
contribute to scattered convection later today, especially as the
boundary layer warms.
Another weak disturbance is noted with convection over the lower
Sabine River Valley/lower MS Valley. This feature will move little
through the period given the weak large-scale flow. Forecast
soundings across the Southeast are seasonably moist with PW values
approaching 2 inches in places. Given the modest lapse rate
environment, surface temperatures warming into the 90s should
contribute to substantial buoyancy - more than adequate for a few
robust updrafts. Gusty winds are the primary concern with these
short-lived storms.
...TS Idalia...
TS Idalia is forecast to advance north through the period ultimately
strengthening into a hurricane Monday evening over the western tip
of Cuba. Idalia will remain over the southern Gulf through sunrise
Tuesday morning. While low-level flow/shear will begin to increase
across the FL Keys late in the period, forecast soundings suggest
the primary influence of Idalia will remain too far west to warrant
a meaningful risk of tornadoes across this portion of FL during the
day1 period.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 08/28/2023
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