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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, August 28, 2023

SPC Aug 28, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds are possible with convection across the Southeast Monday. ...Southeast... Upper anticyclone will hold across the southwestern US Monday with pronounced troughing expected across southeast Canada into the upper OH Valley. At low latitudes, latest model guidance suggests a weak disturbance will progress across the southern Appalachians early in the period. This feature is currently evident on water-vapor imagery over central KY/TN and subsequent movement into the Carolinas should contribute to scattered convection later today, especially as the boundary layer warms. Another weak disturbance is noted with convection over the lower Sabine River Valley/lower MS Valley. This feature will move little through the period given the weak large-scale flow. Forecast soundings across the Southeast are seasonably moist with PW values approaching 2 inches in places. Given the modest lapse rate environment, surface temperatures warming into the 90s should contribute to substantial buoyancy - more than adequate for a few robust updrafts. Gusty winds are the primary concern with these short-lived storms. ...TS Idalia... TS Idalia is forecast to advance north through the period ultimately strengthening into a hurricane Monday evening over the western tip of Cuba. Idalia will remain over the southern Gulf through sunrise Tuesday morning. While low-level flow/shear will begin to increase across the FL Keys late in the period, forecast soundings suggest the primary influence of Idalia will remain too far west to warrant a meaningful risk of tornadoes across this portion of FL during the day1 period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 08/28/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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