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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, August 28, 2023

SPC Aug 28, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated storms capable of strong and gusty winds are possible across the Southeast this afternoon. ...Southeast this afternoon... A weak midlevel trough persists from the northern Gulf of Mexico to the southern Appalachians with multiple embedded vorticity maxima. Vertical shear is very weak across the Southeast, and thermodynamic profiles are less favorable for strong downdrafts compared to previous days. Thus, scattered pulse-type storms are expected this afternoon along a combination of a stalled synoptic front, weak differential heating zones and local sea breeze circulations. The wind-damage threat appears to be on the lower margins for an outlook area, but will maintain the 5% area for the possibility of isolated downbursts. ...Central/southern High Plains this afternoon/evening... Similar to yesterday, a few storm clusters will form this afternoon and move south-southeastward from southeast WY across eastern CO into eastern NM through this evening. Effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt will support semi-organized storms, a few of which could produce gusty outflow winds and small hail. However, the storms will be relatively low topped for late summer and the severe threat appears too marginal to add an outlook area. ...Tropical cyclone Idalia and FL... Tropical storm Idalia is expected to become a hurricane later today into tonight while moving northward toward the southeast Gulf of Mexico (please refer to latest NHC advisories for additional information). The stronger wind profiles and associated supercell threat will likely be delayed in FL until Tuesday during the day, so will not add any tornado probabilities in this update. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 08/28/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)