LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated storms capable of strong and gusty winds are possible
across the Southeast this afternoon.
...Southeast this afternoon...
A weak midlevel trough persists from the northern Gulf of Mexico to
the southern Appalachians with multiple embedded vorticity maxima.
Vertical shear is very weak across the Southeast, and thermodynamic
profiles are less favorable for strong downdrafts compared to
previous days. Thus, scattered pulse-type storms are expected this
afternoon along a combination of a stalled synoptic front, weak
differential heating zones and local sea breeze circulations. The
wind-damage threat appears to be on the lower margins for an outlook
area, but will maintain the 5% area for the possibility of isolated
downbursts.
...Central/southern High Plains this afternoon/evening...
Similar to yesterday, a few storm clusters will form this afternoon
and move south-southeastward from southeast WY across eastern CO
into eastern NM through this evening. Effective bulk shear of 25-30
kt will support semi-organized storms, a few of which could produce
gusty outflow winds and small hail. However, the storms will be
relatively low topped for late summer and the severe threat appears
too marginal to add an outlook area.
...Tropical cyclone Idalia and FL...
Tropical storm Idalia is expected to become a hurricane later today
into tonight while moving northward toward the southeast Gulf of
Mexico (please refer to latest NHC advisories for additional
information). The stronger wind profiles and associated supercell
threat will likely be delayed in FL until Tuesday during the day, so
will not add any tornado probabilities in this update.
..Thompson/Lyons.. 08/28/2023
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