LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
TEXAS TO THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Gusty winds are possible at times with convection from parts of
Texas to the Carolinas Sunday afternoon and early evening.
...Texas to the Carolinas...
Upper anticyclone is forecast to slowly retrograde across the
southwestern US Sunday. As this occurs, northwesterly flow will
dominant much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Early this morning,
water-vapor imagery depicts a weak, but well defined short-wave
trough digging southeast across southeast MO/southern IL. This
feature contributed to widespread convection Saturday and will
likely encourage substantial thunderstorm activity immediately
downstream as the boundary layer warms by mid day. Latest diagnostic
data exhibits a seasonally high PW air mass across the Mid South
into the Carolinas where values exceed 2 inches in places. While
mid-level temperatures are mild, leading to weak lapse rates,
scattered thunderstorms will likely evolve ahead of this organized
feature and gusty winds could accompany the more robust short-lived
updrafts.
Farther west, surface front will advance south across TX as surface
pressures rise across the Plains in the wake of the aforementioned
short wave and deepening northwesterly flow aloft. Latest model
guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating ahead of this wind
shift across TX into the lower MS Valley. Temperatures should warm
rapidly through the 90s into the lower 100s. 27/00z soundings ahead
of the front exhibited 40-50F temperature/dew point spreads at both
FWD and SHV with PW values around 1.5 inches. Convective
temperatures should be breached by late afternoon and isolated
high-based convection should develop ahead of the front. This
environment favors locally strong winds with the more robust
updrafts.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 08/27/2023
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