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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, August 27, 2023

SPC Aug 27, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF TEXAS TO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds are possible at times with convection from parts of Texas to the Carolinas Sunday afternoon and early evening. ...Texas to the Carolinas... Upper anticyclone is forecast to slowly retrograde across the southwestern US Sunday. As this occurs, northwesterly flow will dominant much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Early this morning, water-vapor imagery depicts a weak, but well defined short-wave trough digging southeast across southeast MO/southern IL. This feature contributed to widespread convection Saturday and will likely encourage substantial thunderstorm activity immediately downstream as the boundary layer warms by mid day. Latest diagnostic data exhibits a seasonally high PW air mass across the Mid South into the Carolinas where values exceed 2 inches in places. While mid-level temperatures are mild, leading to weak lapse rates, scattered thunderstorms will likely evolve ahead of this organized feature and gusty winds could accompany the more robust short-lived updrafts. Farther west, surface front will advance south across TX as surface pressures rise across the Plains in the wake of the aforementioned short wave and deepening northwesterly flow aloft. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating ahead of this wind shift across TX into the lower MS Valley. Temperatures should warm rapidly through the 90s into the lower 100s. 27/00z soundings ahead of the front exhibited 40-50F temperature/dew point spreads at both FWD and SHV with PW values around 1.5 inches. Convective temperatures should be breached by late afternoon and isolated high-based convection should develop ahead of the front. This environment favors locally strong winds with the more robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 08/27/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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