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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, July 8, 2023

SPC Jul 8, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, and one or two organized thunderstorm clusters, are possible east of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains through the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and Red River Valley vicinity. Additional strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the lower Mississippi into Ohio Valleys. ...Synopsis... Perhaps most prominently in mid/upper levels, models indicate that blocking mid-level ridging will become increasingly prominent to the south of Greenland, with a pair of flanking, broad and anamalously deep closed lows. The center of the western one is forecast to redevelop west/southwest of Hudson Bay into northeastern Manitoba, with cyclonic flow strengthening on its western periphery, across the eastern Canadian Prairies. At the same time, relatively amplified, but weak, split flow is forecast to persist across the eastern Pacific into western North America. Mid-level ridging in one branch appears likely to build across the eastern Great Basin, in advance of mid-level troughing approaching the Pacific coast. Downstream, broadly cyclonic and northwesterly flow will prevail from the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into larger-scale troughing digging across the lower Mississippi Valley, more or less in phase with troughing digging across the Upper Midwest, to the south of the Canadian cyclone. Steep lapse rates, associated with warm-elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Mexican Plateau/Intermountain West, have already become confined to a plume across the southern Great Plains into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This may become suppressed a bit further southward/southwestward in response to pattern developments today, with associated contribution to instability providing the primary focus for strong to severe storm development. ...Front Range/Sangre de Cristo Mountains into Red River... Seasonably moist southeasterly near-surface flow appears likely to persist into the Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide vicinities, with models also indicating the development of a weak surface low across southeastern Colorado by late afternoon. Upslope flow, along the southern slopes into crest of the Palmer Divide to the north of the low, may contribute to intensifying thunderstorm development off the Front Range by late this afternoon, as mixed-layer CAPE becomes moderately large and inhibition weakens. A few supercells are possible initially, which appear likely to propagate south-southeastward across southeastern Colorado into late evening, accompanied by a risk for large hail and potential for a tornado or two. Thereafter, in the presence of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, another upscale growing and organizing cluster of storms is possible by late this evening, which may be accompanied by strong to severe surface gusts across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into Red River vicinity by daybreak Sunday. ...Lower Mississippi into Lower Ohio Valleys vicinity... Convective evolution and potential is more unclear across this area. However, a corridor of stronger daytime heating, ahead of a remnant MCV, may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by early this afternoon. This regime may support the development of one or two upscale growing clusters of storms capable of producing potentially damaging wind gusts, while tending to propagate eastward and southeastward through this evening. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 07/08/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)