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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, July 8, 2023

SPC Jul 8, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE MID-SOUTH VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, and one or two organized thunderstorm clusters, are possible east of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains through the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and Red River Valley vicinity. Additional strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the lower Mississippi into Ohio Valleys. ...Front Range of the Central Rockies into TX Panhandle and OK... Southeasterly low-level flow is expected to help maintain the moist air mass already in place throughout the Front Range today. Additionally, prevailing westerly flow aloft will help maintain the steep mid-level lapse rates already in place, with the resulting combination of low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to strong buoyancy this afternoon. Convective initiation appears most likely first across the high terrain of north-central CO (and maybe adjacent southern WY), with these storms then moving into the destabilizing air mass across the Front Range. Long hodographs, created by moderate low-level southeasterlies veering to moderate northwesterlies aloft, will support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail greater than 2" in diameter. These supercells are expected to progress gradually southeastward into more of the central and southern High Plains during the evening. Thereafter, a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection may result in the development of one or more organizing storms clusters. The resulting convective lines are then expected to progress southeastward across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into OK overnight and into Sunday morning. Strong to severe gusts may accompany any convective lines that do develop. ...Mid-South Vicinity... Surface observations already show 70s dewpoints across much of the Mid-South vicinity this morning, with some mid-70s dewpoints across AR and northern LA. A vorticity maximum, left over from the cluster of storms overnight convection, is currently moving across eastern OK. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region as the vorticity maximum continues eastward, interacting the moist and diurnally destabilized air mass in place. Mid-level flow throughout the region will be generally modest, contributing to a predominantly multicellular mode. Even so, some localized enhancement of the flow is possible near the vorticity maximum, resulting in the potential for a few more organized updrafts. Storm mergers could also help briefly augment overall updraft strength. These factors, combined with ample moisture and steep low-level lapse rates, result in the potential for a few water-loaded downbursts. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... Early morning surface analysis places a low over southern IL, near an area of showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing from central/southern IL into central IN. Expectation is for this ongoing activity to continue eastward through the middle OH Valley, with the associated cloud cover tempering daytime heating across IN and OH. The surface low may lag behind these warm-air advection showers, and there should be a window for some limited heating/destabilization between the early cloudiness and the approaching low from OH southwestward into KY. Instability will still be modest, but this region will be on the southern periphery of the cyclonic flow covering eastern Canada, leading to slightly enhanced westerly flow aloft. The resulting combination of instability and shear could support a few stronger storms or bowing segments capable of damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Leitman.. 07/08/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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