LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS...
...SUMMARY...
The most concentrated corridor of severe storms is expected across a
portion of eastern Colorado and western Kansas, centered on this
evening. These storms will be capable of producing very large hail,
a few tornadoes, and significant severe wind gusts as they likely
evolve into a cluster tracking towards northwest Oklahoma overnight.
...Eastern CO to northwest OK...
Decaying remnants of a morning MCS and elevated clusters persist
across parts of OK, the far eastern TX Panhandle, and western KS.
Abundant cloud coverage from convective debris and a broken stratus
canopy will modulate boundary-layer heating, with more robust
insolation expected over much of the TX Panhandle and in pockets
along the southern Rockies.
With a southeasterly component to low-level flow confined to the
lowest 1 km and pronounced veering of the wind profile with height
to separate confluent belts of enhanced mid-level westerlies
centered on the WY/CO border and the CO/NM border, late afternoon
thunderstorm development should be focused near the Denver cyclone
with capping potentially limiting development over the Raton Mesa.
Initial updrafts in northeast CO will likely evolve into one or two
slow-moving supercells with very large hail as the main threat
early. A strengthening low-level jet this evening should support
maintaining these supercells after dusk and/or yield additional
development east along the Palmer Divide in east-central CO. Despite
increasing MLCIN, low-level hodographs will become quite enlarged,
supporting potential for a long-track intense supercell or two
moving southeast across a portion of eastern CO and western KS.
Overnight, elevated convective development should occur downstream
of these long-track supercells, which may yield a small bowing MCS
focused on southwest KS to northwest OK. The overall tornado and
significant severe wind threat should be modulated to an extent by
relatively weak low-level lapse rates. But the highly sheared and
steep mid-level lapse rate environment renders concern for a narrow
swath of significant severe persisting into early morning.
...Lee of the Big Horns to the Black Hills vicinity...
Farther north, a separate region of more concentrated thunderstorm
development is expected during the late afternoon to evening
downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east from the
northern Rockies towards the Big Horns. Low-level shear will be weak
across this area, but an elongated nearly straight-line hodograph
will foster a few splitting supercells capable of very large hail.
These should consolidate into an east-southeast moving cluster/small
MCS across western SD and the NE Panhandle with a threat for severe
wind gusts peaking during the mid-late evening and becoming more
isolated overnight.
...Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss vicinity..
An MCV over east-central OK should drift east with regeneration of
thunderstorms downstream to its south and southeast impinging on a
confined plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. Despite relatively
weak shear, semi-organized multicell clusters should form and offer
a risk for isolated damaging winds through this evening.
..Grams/Flournoy.. 07/06/2023
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