LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail, damaging
wind gusts, and tornadoes, are forecast across the Great Plains
Thursday and Thursday night. The greatest risk for very large hail,
significant severe wind gusts and tornadoes will exist from eastern
Colorado into southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma.
...Central/southern Plains...
Seasonably strong west/northwest mid-level flow will remain over
much of the central U.S. Thursday, with subtle embedded impulses
expected to contribute to thunderstorm development across the high
Plains. In the wake of early morning convection over the
central/southern Plains, a moist east/southeasterly flow exists
north of a composite surface front (reinforced by convective
outflow) that extended from southern OK west/northwest into southern
CO at 12z. Morning stratus should erode and allow diurnal heating to
contribute to ample surface-based CAPE east of the higher terrain by
late afternoon, and isolated severe thunderstorms, likely
supercells, are expected to develop in the late afternoon-early
evening time frame west of the I-25 corridor. As storms move
east/southeast and encounter a very favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic environment, the potential will exist for large to very
large hail, possibly in excess of 3 inches given the steep mid-level
lapse rates in place, and damaging wind gusts. Significant severe
gusts will be possible with the most intense supercells, and as
storms evolve into a linear/bowing structure in tandem with a
strengthening low-level jet/related warm advection. Thursday evening
forecast soundings across eastern CO exhibit substantial low-level
shear that would support a risk for tornadoes with more
discrete/intense supercells.
...Northern Plains...
Farther north, a secondary region of more concentrated thunderstorm
development is expected this afternoon/evening ahead of a shortwave
trough over the northern Rockies. Thunderstorms are expected to
initiate over southern MT/northern and eastern WY and spread toward
the Black Hills region by early evening. Low-level shear is not
expected to be as strong across this area, however strong mid-level
flow will support supercells with a risk for severe hail, possibly
very large, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado.
...Arklatex vicinity...
Thunderstorms over central/northern Oklahoma this morning will have
some potential for re-intensification today while moving southeast
towards the Arklatex. Heating of a very moist low-level air mass
should result in strong instability in place this afternoon. Despite
relatively weak shear, the potential for isolated strong/severe
gusts will exist with the stronger cells.
..Bunting/Gleason.. 07/06/2023
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