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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, July 6, 2023

SPC Jul 6, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes, are forecast across the Great Plains Thursday and Thursday night. The greatest risk for very large hail, significant severe wind gusts and tornadoes will exist from eastern Colorado into southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. ...Central/southern Plains... Seasonably strong west/northwest mid-level flow will remain over much of the central U.S. Thursday, with subtle embedded impulses expected to contribute to thunderstorm development across the high Plains. In the wake of early morning convection over the central/southern Plains, a moist east/southeasterly flow exists north of a composite surface front (reinforced by convective outflow) that extended from southern OK west/northwest into southern CO at 12z. Morning stratus should erode and allow diurnal heating to contribute to ample surface-based CAPE east of the higher terrain by late afternoon, and isolated severe thunderstorms, likely supercells, are expected to develop in the late afternoon-early evening time frame west of the I-25 corridor. As storms move east/southeast and encounter a very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, the potential will exist for large to very large hail, possibly in excess of 3 inches given the steep mid-level lapse rates in place, and damaging wind gusts. Significant severe gusts will be possible with the most intense supercells, and as storms evolve into a linear/bowing structure in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet/related warm advection. Thursday evening forecast soundings across eastern CO exhibit substantial low-level shear that would support a risk for tornadoes with more discrete/intense supercells. ...Northern Plains... Farther north, a secondary region of more concentrated thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon/evening ahead of a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate over southern MT/northern and eastern WY and spread toward the Black Hills region by early evening. Low-level shear is not expected to be as strong across this area, however strong mid-level flow will support supercells with a risk for severe hail, possibly very large, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ...Arklatex vicinity... Thunderstorms over central/northern Oklahoma this morning will have some potential for re-intensification today while moving southeast towards the Arklatex. Heating of a very moist low-level air mass should result in strong instability in place this afternoon. Despite relatively weak shear, the potential for isolated strong/severe gusts will exist with the stronger cells. ..Bunting/Gleason.. 07/06/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)