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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, July 6, 2023

SPC Jul 6, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes, are forecast across much of the Great Plains. ...Great Plains... Upper ridge will remain suppressed across the southwestern US Thursday as seasonally strong mid-level flow is expected to continue across the Great Basin-central Rockies-Mid MS Valley. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests several weak disturbances are noted within this flow over the Great Basin, while a notable short wave trough is digging southeast across the northern Rockies. Each of these features should encourage considerable convection Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours. Early this morning, multiple thunderstorm clusters have evolved over the High Plains from southeast CO into the TX Panhandle. Low-level warm advection should assist this activity as it potentially grows upscale into the early part of the day1 period. If this evolution occurs, significant boundary-layer modification will occur which will likely result in considerable easterly low-level flow across the central High Plains. Latest NAM guidance strongly suggests a pronounced boundary will arc from northwest TX into southeast CO by late afternoon. If so, substantial moistening/destabilization will be forced against the higher terrain. While the NAM may be a bit aggressive in stabilizing eastern CO, thunderstorms should easily initiate west of I-25 then spread toward lower elevations where significant SRH and buoyancy will exist. Forecast soundings for portions of southeast CO into the northwest TX Panhandle exhibit SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg with strong surface-6km shear. If sufficient destabilization occurs, and it likely will just east of the mountains, supercells should easily develop by late afternoon then mature as they propagate southeast. Very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes can be expected where air mass recovery is adequate. Latest guidance suggests this activity will spread toward southwest KS during the evening as LLJ strengthens into this portion of the central Plains. One or more MCSs should evolve across this region during the overnight hours. Farther north, a secondary region of more concentrated convection is expected to develop ahead of the northern Rockies short wave trough. Thunderstorms should initiate over southern MT/northern WY then spread toward the Black Hills region by early evening. While low-level shear is not expected to be as strong across this region, strong mid-level flow will support supercells. Hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado can be expected with these storms. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 07/06/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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