LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of producing large hail, damaging gusts, and
tornadoes, are forecast across much of the Great Plains.
...Great Plains...
Upper ridge will remain suppressed across the southwestern US
Thursday as seasonally strong mid-level flow is expected to continue
across the Great Basin-central Rockies-Mid MS Valley. Latest
water-vapor imagery suggests several weak disturbances are noted
within this flow over the Great Basin, while a notable short wave
trough is digging southeast across the northern Rockies. Each of
these features should encourage considerable convection Thursday
afternoon into the overnight hours.
Early this morning, multiple thunderstorm clusters have evolved over
the High Plains from southeast CO into the TX Panhandle. Low-level
warm advection should assist this activity as it potentially grows
upscale into the early part of the day1 period. If this evolution
occurs, significant boundary-layer modification will occur which
will likely result in considerable easterly low-level flow across
the central High Plains. Latest NAM guidance strongly suggests a
pronounced boundary will arc from northwest TX into southeast CO by
late afternoon. If so, substantial moistening/destabilization will
be forced against the higher terrain. While the NAM may be a bit
aggressive in stabilizing eastern CO, thunderstorms should easily
initiate west of I-25 then spread toward lower elevations where
significant SRH and buoyancy will exist. Forecast soundings for
portions of southeast CO into the northwest TX Panhandle exhibit
SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg with strong surface-6km shear. If
sufficient destabilization occurs, and it likely will just east of
the mountains, supercells should easily develop by late afternoon
then mature as they propagate southeast. Very large hail, damaging
winds, and tornadoes can be expected where air mass recovery is
adequate. Latest guidance suggests this activity will spread toward
southwest KS during the evening as LLJ strengthens into this portion
of the central Plains. One or more MCSs should evolve across this
region during the overnight hours.
Farther north, a secondary region of more concentrated convection is
expected to develop ahead of the northern Rockies short wave trough.
Thunderstorms should initiate over southern MT/northern WY then
spread toward the Black Hills region by early evening. While
low-level shear is not expected to be as strong across this region,
strong mid-level flow will support supercells. Hail, wind, and
perhaps a tornado can be expected with these storms.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 07/06/2023
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