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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, July 5, 2023

SPC Jul 6, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected tonight from portions of southeast Colorado into Oklahoma. Wind and hail are the primary risks. ...01z Update... Weak mid-level short-wave trough has emerged over eastern CO and is beginning to turn southeast due to the upper ridge position over the southern Rockies. Scattered convection has developed immediately ahead of this feature with several supercells currently noted across southeast CO into northeast NM. Early-day MCS over KS/OK has disrupted the boundary layer considerably across the lower Plains but easterly low-level flow is now predominant across OK into southeast CO. Convective outflow boundary continues to move west across southwest OK/northwest TX. This wind shift may influence ongoing convection across southeast TX Panhandle/southwest OK to propagate a bit more southeast than earlier anticipated. Although, it's not entirely clear how this cluster will evolve over the next few hours. Upstream, 00z sounding from AMA exhibits 2700 J/kg SBCAPE with ample deep-layer flow/shear for maintaining organized clusters/isolated supercells. Confidence continues regarding the potential for upscale growth with the CO/NM activity after dark. One or more MCSs should ultimately evolve across the high Plains from southwest KS into the TX Panhandle. With time these clusters should propagate toward northern OK later tonight. ..Darrow.. 07/06/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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