LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023
Valid 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS VICINITY AND NORTHERN IL/SOUTHEAST WI...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible across a
portion of eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico to northwest
Oklahoma through tonight. Scattered damaging winds are also possible
over northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin through early
evening.
...Southern Rockies to south KS and OK...
Composite outflow/effective surface cold front attendant to a
decaying MCS extends from southern OK to the TX Panhandle. Rather
pronounced differential heating will occur and yield an intense
surface temperature gradient from around 100 along the Red River to
upper 60s holding in parts of eastern CO/northwest KS. Late
afternoon thunderstorm development should largely be focused along
the higher terrain of CO to northeast NM with a fair amount of MLCIN
likely holding over the adjacent High Plains north of the Raton
Mesa. A few supercells should form with a primary threat of large
hail but may struggle to move off the terrain north of the
Panhandles early. Additional storms may also form near the
outflow/front intersection in the eastern TX Panhandle vicinity
along the fringe of the mid-level flow.
This evening, a strengthening low-level jet atop the robust
baroclinic zone will yield increasing storm coverage as inhibition
becomes minimized for slightly elevated parcels. This should favor a
mix of supercells and clusters over eastern CO and southwest KS that
may grow upscale into a southeast-moving MCS overnight into parts of
the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. Large hail will be a threat
mainly early, with strong to severe wind gust potential lingering
into the overnight.
...AR to WI/MI...
A well-defined MCV is evident across northeast MO with a separate
MCV approaching the Ozark Plateau attendant to a decaying MCS in OK.
The northern one should remain coincident near a slow-moving cold
front that arcs from the Mid-MS Valley to eastern WI. While there is
flow enhancement evident on the backside of the Ozarks MCV,
effective bulk shear downstream of both MCVs should remain weak up
to around 20 kts (south of south WI). In addition, mid-level lapse
rates will be weak, but nearly full insolation will support a plume
of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. Morning CAM guidance is consistent in
indicating scattered to widespread storms later this afternoon. But
the weakly sheared environment suggest clusters will only be loosely
organized, suggesting severe gust potential will be relatively
sporadic and ill-defined across much of the region. One exception
may be across northern IL to southeast WI where slightly stronger
deep-layer shear is expected.
...GA and the Carolinas...
An MCV over the southern Appalachians drifting east and differential
boundary-layer heating owing to its attendant cloud canopy should
help focus scattered thunderstorm development to its south in GA and
east-southeast across parts of the Carolinas. Relatively greater
heating will occur across the coastal plain and parts of the
Piedmont, yielding a pronounced MLCAPE gradient from west to east
amid weak mid-level lapse rates. Flow enhancement appears minor,
resulting in effective bulk shear only up to around 20 kts. This may
be adequate for loosely organized, slow-moving multicell clusters
that may produce isolated damaging winds.
..Grams/Flournoy.. 07/05/2023
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