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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, July 5, 2023

SPC Jul 5, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY AND NORTHERN IL/SOUTHEAST WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible across a portion of eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico to northwest Oklahoma through tonight. Scattered damaging winds are also possible over northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin through early evening. ...Southern Rockies to south KS and OK... Composite outflow/effective surface cold front attendant to a decaying MCS extends from southern OK to the TX Panhandle. Rather pronounced differential heating will occur and yield an intense surface temperature gradient from around 100 along the Red River to upper 60s holding in parts of eastern CO/northwest KS. Late afternoon thunderstorm development should largely be focused along the higher terrain of CO to northeast NM with a fair amount of MLCIN likely holding over the adjacent High Plains north of the Raton Mesa. A few supercells should form with a primary threat of large hail but may struggle to move off the terrain north of the Panhandles early. Additional storms may also form near the outflow/front intersection in the eastern TX Panhandle vicinity along the fringe of the mid-level flow. This evening, a strengthening low-level jet atop the robust baroclinic zone will yield increasing storm coverage as inhibition becomes minimized for slightly elevated parcels. This should favor a mix of supercells and clusters over eastern CO and southwest KS that may grow upscale into a southeast-moving MCS overnight into parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. Large hail will be a threat mainly early, with strong to severe wind gust potential lingering into the overnight. ...AR to WI/MI... A well-defined MCV is evident across northeast MO with a separate MCV approaching the Ozark Plateau attendant to a decaying MCS in OK. The northern one should remain coincident near a slow-moving cold front that arcs from the Mid-MS Valley to eastern WI. While there is flow enhancement evident on the backside of the Ozarks MCV, effective bulk shear downstream of both MCVs should remain weak up to around 20 kts (south of south WI). In addition, mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but nearly full insolation will support a plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. Morning CAM guidance is consistent in indicating scattered to widespread storms later this afternoon. But the weakly sheared environment suggest clusters will only be loosely organized, suggesting severe gust potential will be relatively sporadic and ill-defined across much of the region. One exception may be across northern IL to southeast WI where slightly stronger deep-layer shear is expected. ...GA and the Carolinas... An MCV over the southern Appalachians drifting east and differential boundary-layer heating owing to its attendant cloud canopy should help focus scattered thunderstorm development to its south in GA and east-southeast across parts of the Carolinas. Relatively greater heating will occur across the coastal plain and parts of the Piedmont, yielding a pronounced MLCAPE gradient from west to east amid weak mid-level lapse rates. Flow enhancement appears minor, resulting in effective bulk shear only up to around 20 kts. This may be adequate for loosely organized, slow-moving multicell clusters that may produce isolated damaging winds. ..Grams/Flournoy.. 07/05/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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