Temps | Gusts | WU KORD KPWK

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...




Cardinal SAT


MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, July 5, 2023

SPC Jul 5, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected today from the the central and southern High Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary severe weather hazards. A tornado or two is also possible over the central and southern high Plains. ...Central/southern Plains... Western flank of outflow from overnight MCS should continue moving southeast/south over northeast OK this morning with some ongoing thunderstorm potential, while thunderstorms also persist early within a warm advection regime over northern OK/southern KS north of a stationary front. Strong daytime heating will contribute to renewed thunderstorm development this afternoon along the front/residual outflow boundary across southern KS/northern OK, where strong instability (MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg) will be present. Northwesterly mid-level flow averaging 35 kts will be sufficient for organized storms including supercells with a risk for severe hail and perhaps a tornado. With time, clusters/short line segments should evolve with damaging winds an increasing concern as storms move southeast. Some potential exists for current storms to shift the effective front, and focus for later development, farther south and this will be re-evaluated with the 1630z outlook. Farther west, isolated supercells are likely to develop across the higher terrain in CO/northeast NM by late afternoon/early evening, where steep mid-level lapse rates, 40-50 kts of deep-layer shear, and moderate instability will result in the potential for large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Storms will likely congeal into a southeast-moving cluster later this evening/overnight across the TX/OK Panhandles and northern OK in the presence of strengthening low-level warm advection, with strong/damaging wind potential the primary severe risk. ...Missouri/Illinois into Great Lakes... Remnants of the overnight MCS will continue moving east today, with renewed updrafts developing along residual outflow boundary this afternoon across eastern MO/western IL, as well as northward along the cold front over eastern WI/Lake Michigan. Modest mid-level southwest/west flow will contribute to deep-layer shear of 20-35 kts in the presence of moderate/strong MLCAPE. Storms may initially possess some supercell characteristics capable of isolated large hail and strong/severe gusts, with linear evolution expected and damaging wind gusts becoming the primary concern. ..Bunting/Gleason.. 07/05/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)