Temps | Gusts | WU KORD KPWK

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...




Cardinal SAT


MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, July 5, 2023

SPC Jul 5, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered storms, some potentially severe, are forecast from the central High Plains eastward into the middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Northern Plains upper trough is forecast to progress into the upper MS Valley late in the period with weak large-scale ridging expected to hold across the southwestern US. This evolution will result in a dominant surface high settling southeast across the Plains/MS Valley which will force a cold front to extend from WI-IL-MO-TX Panhandle region by late afternoon. While weak mid-level height falls will be noted, primarily north of I-80, surface heating will prove instrumental in convective development along/ahead of the cold front. Early this morning, MCS has evolved over eastern KS/northwest MO. This complex of storms should continue propagating southeast through daybreak. Latest HREF guidance suggests significant weakening will occur early in the period. It's not entirely clear whether this activity will completely dissipate, but renewed thunderstorm activity is expected along the leading edge of the convective debris by early-mid afternoon. In its wake, strong surface heating is forecast across the southern Plains extending into south-central KS, immediately ahead of the synoptic front. As temperatures soar through the mid 90s convective temperatures will be breached and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve within modest west-northwesterly flow at 500mb. Additionally, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop off the higher terrain of central/southern CO into northeast NM. Some supercell potential is expected with the high Plains convection. Southeast propagation should lead to one or more complexes that spread toward northern OK during the overnight hours. Large hail will be more common with supercells, otherwise strong winds may accompany the more organized MCS-like complexes. Downstream, scattered thunderstorms are also expected to develop ahead of the front across the Mid MS Valley. Surface temperatures will warm through the 80s as far north as southeast WI. This should lead to modest buoyancy ahead of the trough where 500mb flow is on the order of 25kt. Forecast soundings suggest convection should evolve by early afternoon and the main risk with this activity will be gusty winds. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 07/05/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)