LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered storms, some potentially severe, are forecast from
the central High Plains eastward into the middle Mississippi Valley
on Wednesday.
...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Northern Plains upper trough is forecast to progress into the upper
MS Valley late in the period with weak large-scale ridging expected
to hold across the southwestern US. This evolution will result in a
dominant surface high settling southeast across the Plains/MS Valley
which will force a cold front to extend from WI-IL-MO-TX Panhandle
region by late afternoon. While weak mid-level height falls will be
noted, primarily north of I-80, surface heating will prove
instrumental in convective development along/ahead of the cold
front.
Early this morning, MCS has evolved over eastern KS/northwest MO.
This complex of storms should continue propagating southeast through
daybreak. Latest HREF guidance suggests significant weakening will
occur early in the period. It's not entirely clear whether this
activity will completely dissipate, but renewed thunderstorm
activity is expected along the leading edge of the convective debris
by early-mid afternoon. In its wake, strong surface heating is
forecast across the southern Plains extending into south-central KS,
immediately ahead of the synoptic front. As temperatures soar
through the mid 90s convective temperatures will be breached and
scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve within modest
west-northwesterly flow at 500mb. Additionally, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop off the higher terrain of
central/southern CO into northeast NM. Some supercell potential is
expected with the high Plains convection. Southeast propagation
should lead to one or more complexes that spread toward northern OK
during the overnight hours. Large hail will be more common with
supercells, otherwise strong winds may accompany the more organized
MCS-like complexes.
Downstream, scattered thunderstorms are also expected to develop
ahead of the front across the Mid MS Valley. Surface temperatures
will warm through the 80s as far north as southeast WI. This should
lead to modest buoyancy ahead of the trough where 500mb flow is on
the order of 25kt. Forecast soundings suggest convection should
evolve by early afternoon and the main risk with this activity will
be gusty winds.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 07/05/2023
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