LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible this afternoon and evening
for parts of the southern Great Lakes, along with occasional large
hail. Severe gusts also are possible over parts of the central High
Plains this afternoon.
...20Z Update...
The primary changes to the ongoing forecast were to reduce wind
probabilities in the wake of convection, trim severe probabilities
behind the shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest along with minor
changes to the general thunderstorm area. The remainder of forecast
remains on track with additional thunderstorm development possible
in the southern Great Lakes region as the low-level jet intensifies
later today/tonight.
..Wendt.. 07/26/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023/
...Lower MI and Vicinity...
Multiple strong/severe MCSs are ongoing this morning over western
Lower MI, Lake MI, and southern WI. Two lead bowing clusters of
convection over western Lower MI will likely continue to track
quickly eastward today into a progressively more unstable air mass.
Dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s and relatively strong heating will
yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Mid-level lapse rates
are not particularly steep, but rather strong winds aloft and
mesoscale organization of these clusters will help to pose a risk of
damaging winds across much of central/eastern Lower MI through the
afternoon. The potential also exists for a few supercells to form
ahead of the main bowing structures, posing a risk of hail and a few
tornadoes as well.
Behind the lead convection, another bowing MCS is moving across
southwest WI. These storms are closer to the mid-level vorticity
center and even stronger winds aloft. It is unclear how much
destabilization can occur in the wake of the lead storms, but it
seems plausible that this cluster will also pose a severe risk
through much of the afternoon and evening, traversing a similar
track as the southern lead bowing structure.
...UT to CO/KS/NE...
A corridor of sufficient mid-level moisture is expected to result in
scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms from parts of UT into
northern CO and southern WY today. As the storms over the CO
mountains spread eastward into the plains, they will encounter an
increasingly moist and unstable air mass. A few of these storms may
become severe by late afternoon/evening with damaging winds being
the main concern.
...Southern AZ...
Several 12z HREF members show a cluster of thunderstorms developing
over the higher terrain of southern AZ and spreading northwestward
during the evening. If this scenario unfolds, strong wind gusts
could affect the region.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SsnMD5
Windy.com Temps | Gusts | WU KORD KPWK |
CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ... | RADAR FULL MAP SCREEN |
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MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).
Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.
CONVECTIVE | TORNADO | WIND | HAIL
O'Hare International Airport KORD
(Arlington Heights South)
Chicago Executive Airport KPWK
(Arlington Heights North)
Wednesday, July 26, 2023
SPC Jul 26, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)