LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Severe gusts and hail (some potentially significant) are possible
this afternoon and evening in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Damaging to severe gusts also may occur today with thunderstorms in
parts of the Mid-Atlantic/New England regions, and the central High
Plains and Rockies.
...Northeast...
A well-defined shortwave trough is moving across central NY today.
Forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will aid in the development
of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon from parts of PA and
southeast NY into southern and eastern New England. Rich low-level
moisture and pockets of strong daytime heating will yield MLCAPE
values around 2000 J/kg. Rather strong wind fields will promote
relatively fast-moving storms capable of wind damage. Parts of
southern New England may also have sufficient low-level vertical
shear to pose a risk of a tornado or two. Please refer to MCDs
#1736 and #1737 for further details.
...Western Great Lakes/Upper Midwest...
Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern Plains, with
50-70 knot westerly winds above 6km noted on forecast soundings. A
surface boundary is sagging southward across MN, and should provide
the focus for rapid thunderstorm development later this afternoon.
A very unstable air mass will develop from central MN into northern
WI, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells capable of
very large hail. Storms are expected to persist well into the
evening as they spread eastward into parts of Upper MI and much of
northern/central WI. The risk of rather widespread damaging winds
will increase across this area. Given the favorable environment and
consistent 12z model signals, have upgraded portions of this area to
ENH.
...Rockies and High Plains...
Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop over the high terrain of CO northward into
much of WY and MT. Fast westerly flow and steep low-level lapse
rates will promote a risk of damaging wind gusts in some of these
storms. As activity spreads eastward into the Plains, a few more
robust updrafts may also produce large hail.
..Hart/Thornton.. 07/27/2023
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