LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN
INDIANA...AND NORTHERN OHIO...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today in parts of
the southern Great Lakes, along with occasional large hail. Severe
gusts also are possible over parts of the central High Plains this
afternoon.
...Lower MI and Vicinity...
Multiple strong/severe MCSs are ongoing this morning over western
Lower MI, Lake MI, and southern WI. Two lead bowing clusters of
convection over western Lower MI will likely continue to track
quickly eastward today into a progressively more unstable air mass.
Dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s and relatively strong heating will
yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Mid-level lapse rates
are not particularly steep, but rather strong winds aloft and
mesoscale organization of these clusters will help to pose a risk of
damaging winds across much of central/eastern Lower MI through the
afternoon. The potential also exists for a few supercells to form
ahead of the main bowing structures, posing a risk of hail and a few
tornadoes as well.
Behind the lead convection, another bowing MCS is moving across
southwest WI. These storms are closer to the mid-level vorticity
center and even stronger winds aloft. It is unclear how much
destabilization can occur in the wake of the lead storms, but it
seems plausible that this cluster will also pose a severe risk
through much of the afternoon and evening, traversing a similar
track as the southern lead bowing structure.
...UT to CO/KS/NE...
A corridor of sufficient mid-level moisture is expected to result in
scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms from parts of UT into
northern CO and southern WY today. As the storms over the CO
mountains spread eastward into the plains, they will encounter an
increasingly moist and unstable air mass. A few of these storms may
become severe by late afternoon/evening with damaging winds being
the main concern.
...Southern AZ...
Several 12z HREF members show a cluster of thunderstorms developing
over the higher terrain of southern AZ and spreading northwestward
during the evening. If this scenario unfolds, strong wind gusts
could affect the region.
..Hart/Thornton.. 07/26/2023
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