LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN SC AND WESTERN NC...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening,
at least on an isolated basis, across the Southeast States as well
as the northern/central Plains and Ozarks. A few strong wind gusts
could also occur in Arizona.
...Carolinas...
Mostly sunny skies are present today from much of GA across the
Carolinas. Ample low-level moisture will yield afternoon MLCAPE
values of 1500-2000 J/kg, along with rather strong mid/upper level
winds. 12z CAM solutions show a more robust signal for higher
thunderstorm coverage across parts of northern SC into central NC.
Therefore have opted to add a SLGT risk for parts of SC/NC for this
afternoon and evening.
...FL...
A large but relatively disorganized MCS is moving across the
northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern FL. Strong heating ahead of
this system will lead to occasional intense storms along the leading
edge of the combined outflow. Forecast soundings show rather
limited deep-layer shear and lapse rates, suggesting that activity
will not be very organized or long-lived. However, locally
gusty/damaging winds could occur.
...Central/Northern Plains...
A large area of moderate/strong instability and fast northwest flow
aloft lies across much of the northern and central Plains today.
Forecast soundings across the region from the eastern Dakotas into
KS/MO show sufficient CAPE/shear for a conditional risk of
supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. However,
forcing is weak and confidence in where afternoon convective
initiation will occur is low. Therefore will maintain a broad MRGL
risk. The strongest signal in 12z models appears to extend from
south-central NE across central/eastern KS into west-central MO.
This and other corridors will be monitored through the afternoon for
a potential upgrade.
...AZ...
Easterly flow aloft today will again pose some risk of convection
moving off the higher terrain of eastern/northern AZ into higher
population areas. Damaging winds would be the main concern.
..Hart/Thornton.. 07/23/2023
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