LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...AND IN THE
NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible today across parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley,
Ohio Valley and Northeast.
...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley...
A mid-level anticyclone will move slowly eastward across the Rockies
today, as northwesterly mid-level flow remains across much of the
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass
with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will be in place from the
Great Plains eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As
surface temperatures warm today, several pockets of moderate
instability will likely develop. Low-level convergence is forecast
to become maximized near the moist axis from near Kansas City
eastward into Indiana and Kentucky, where isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to initiate this afternoon. Other cells
may initiate further to the north along an axis of instability
forecast from southern Minnesota into north-central Wisconsin.
Within these areas, several small clusters appear likely to develop
in the late afternoon and persist into the evening. Forecast
soundings near the moisture and instability axis from Kansas City to
Paducah generally have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range, along
with 0-6 km shear of 30 to 40 knots. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates
are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km, suggesting the environment will
support isolated damaging wind gusts. Hail could also occur with the
more intense cells.
...Northeast...
An upper-level trough will move into the southern and central
Appalachians today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in
place across much of the eastern U.S., where surface dewpoints will
be mostly in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm today, a narrow
corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop from
northern Virginia into central and eastern New York. Scattered
thunderstorms will likely develop along and near the instability
axis this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings along this corridor late
this afternoon have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the
25 to 30 knot range. This could be sufficient for a marginal severe
threat as low-level lapse rates become maximized. A few damaging
wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells
from late afternoon into the early evening.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 07/24/2023
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SsdV7R
