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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, July 24, 2023

SPC Jul 24, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...AND IN THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Northeast. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley... A mid-level anticyclone will move slowly eastward across the Rockies today, as northwesterly mid-level flow remains across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will be in place from the Great Plains eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, several pockets of moderate instability will likely develop. Low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized near the moist axis from near Kansas City eastward into Indiana and Kentucky, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate this afternoon. Other cells may initiate further to the north along an axis of instability forecast from southern Minnesota into north-central Wisconsin. Within these areas, several small clusters appear likely to develop in the late afternoon and persist into the evening. Forecast soundings near the moisture and instability axis from Kansas City to Paducah generally have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range, along with 0-6 km shear of 30 to 40 knots. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km, suggesting the environment will support isolated damaging wind gusts. Hail could also occur with the more intense cells. ...Northeast... An upper-level trough will move into the southern and central Appalachians today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the eastern U.S., where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm today, a narrow corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop from northern Virginia into central and eastern New York. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along and near the instability axis this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings along this corridor late this afternoon have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This could be sufficient for a marginal severe threat as low-level lapse rates become maximized. A few damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells from late afternoon into the early evening. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 07/24/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)