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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, July 23, 2023

SPC Jul 23, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening, at least on an isolated basis, across the Southeast States as well as the northern/central Plains and Ozarks. A few strong wind gusts could also occur in Arizona. ...Southeast States including Carolinas/Georgia... Mean troughing and cyclonically curved westerlies will continue to influence the region today. A weak surface low will transition from near the Georgia/South Carolina border toward the South Carolina Piedmont. This is similarly where the primary zone of moderate destabilization is expected today, as well as along a trailing southeastward-moving cold front across Georgia/southeast Alabama and northwest Florida. Within a moist and weakly capped environment, storms should increase in coverage and intensity into the afternoon, near the surface low/front as well as within the warm sector in near-coastal areas. Around 25-30 kt of effective shear will support multicells with wind damage as the primary hazard during the afternoon through around sunset. Other pulse-type strong/locally severe storms may also occur across parts of Florida, ahead of a slow-moving complex of storms in the near-coastal northeast Gulf of Mexico this morning. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks... Severe probabilities have been introduced/expanded across the central Plains to account for at least a conditional-type supercell potential, with concerns for a few locally intense storms even if deep convective development remains widely dispersed later today. Parts of the Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley including central/southern Missouri and far eastern Kansas would still appear to a focus for potential severe-storm development within an unstable environment (upwards of 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE) late this afternoon into tonight. Across the central Plains, although mid-level capping is a point of uncertainty as far as storm coverage/likelihood in some areas, a supercell-favorable environment will persist across parts of northern Kansas into central portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. This is accentuated by very strong northwesterly flow aloft for the season. One potential scenario is for development near the lee trough and/or off the higher terrain to the west to spread east-southeastward into the instability axis this evening or even late tonight, aided by a strengthening southern High Plains low-level jet. Other very isolated development cannot be ruled out regionally around peak heating. Isolated potentially strong/severe storms may also develop late tonight across the Middle to Lower Missouri Valley as warm advection strengthens. ...Eastern North Dakota/Western Minnesota... Strong northwesterly flow aloft along with modest low-level moisture and moderate instability, maximized across the Dakotas, will be favorable for at least isolated severe storms, particularly later this afternoon into tonight. This could include a few supercells capable of large hail and localized severe-caliber wind gusts. This could relate to the southeastward progression of a subtle convectively enhanced mid-level wave over central North Dakota this morning, and/or with storms developing southeastward out of southeast Saskatchewan and/or southern Manitoba late this afternoon and tonight. ...Arizona... The upper ridge will become increasingly centered near the immediate Four Corners area through tonight, with a persistence of easterly mid-level steering flow and the potential for at least a glancing influence by one or more subtle easterly disturbances. At least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop and increase over the Mogollon Rim and southeast Arizona mountains this afternoon, with probable subsequent propagation onto the desert floor within the hot/well-mixed boundary layer environment across southern/central Arizona. Strong/gusty outflow winds and areas of blowing dust can be expected. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 07/23/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)