LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023
Valid 231300Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening,
at least on an isolated basis, across the Southeast States as well
as the northern/central Plains and Ozarks. A few strong wind gusts
could also occur in Arizona.
...Southeast States including Carolinas/Georgia...
Mean troughing and cyclonically curved westerlies will continue to
influence the region today. A weak surface low will transition from
near the Georgia/South Carolina border toward the South Carolina
Piedmont. This is similarly where the primary zone of moderate
destabilization is expected today, as well as along a trailing
southeastward-moving cold front across Georgia/southeast Alabama and
northwest Florida. Within a moist and weakly capped environment,
storms should increase in coverage and intensity into the afternoon,
near the surface low/front as well as within the warm sector in
near-coastal areas. Around 25-30 kt of effective shear will support
multicells with wind damage as the primary hazard during the
afternoon through around sunset. Other pulse-type strong/locally
severe storms may also occur across parts of Florida, ahead of a
slow-moving complex of storms in the near-coastal northeast Gulf of
Mexico this morning.
...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks...
Severe probabilities have been introduced/expanded across the
central Plains to account for at least a conditional-type supercell
potential, with concerns for a few locally intense storms even if
deep convective development remains widely dispersed later today.
Parts of the Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley including central/southern
Missouri and far eastern Kansas would still appear to a focus for
potential severe-storm development within an unstable environment
(upwards of 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE) late this afternoon into tonight.
Across the central Plains, although mid-level capping is a point of
uncertainty as far as storm coverage/likelihood in some areas, a
supercell-favorable environment will persist across parts of
northern Kansas into central portions of Nebraska and South Dakota.
This is accentuated by very strong northwesterly flow aloft for the
season. One potential scenario is for development near the lee
trough and/or off the higher terrain to the west to spread
east-southeastward into the instability axis this evening or even
late tonight, aided by a strengthening southern High Plains
low-level jet. Other very isolated development cannot be ruled out
regionally around peak heating. Isolated potentially strong/severe
storms may also develop late tonight across the Middle to Lower
Missouri Valley as warm advection strengthens.
...Eastern North Dakota/Western Minnesota...
Strong northwesterly flow aloft along with modest low-level moisture
and moderate instability, maximized across the Dakotas, will be
favorable for at least isolated severe storms, particularly later
this afternoon into tonight. This could include a few supercells
capable of large hail and localized severe-caliber wind gusts. This
could relate to the southeastward progression of a subtle
convectively enhanced mid-level wave over central North Dakota this
morning, and/or with storms developing southeastward out of
southeast Saskatchewan and/or southern Manitoba late this afternoon
and tonight.
...Arizona...
The upper ridge will become increasingly centered near the immediate
Four Corners area through tonight, with a persistence of easterly
mid-level steering flow and the potential for at least a glancing
influence by one or more subtle easterly disturbances. At least
widely scattered thunderstorms should develop and increase over the
Mogollon Rim and southeast Arizona mountains this afternoon, with
probable subsequent propagation onto the desert floor within the
hot/well-mixed boundary layer environment across southern/central
Arizona. Strong/gusty outflow winds and areas of blowing dust can be
expected.
..Guyer/Mosier.. 07/23/2023
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