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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, July 23, 2023

SPC Jul 23, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...GEORGIA...EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI...EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible today in parts of the Carolinas, Georgia, eastern Kansas, southern Missouri, eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. A few strong wind gusts could also occur in Arizona. ...Carolinas/Georgia... An upper-level trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will be located from the eastern Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms will initiate in the Blue Ridge Mountains around midday. Storm coverage will increase as storms move eastward into the lower elevations this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon at Spartanburg and Columbia, South Carolina have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range, 0-3 km lapse rates near 7 C/km and DCAPE around 500 J/kg. This will support a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger multicells. A severe threat could develop further east into the Atlantic coastal areas by early evening. ...Central Plains/Ozarks... An upper-level ridge will build slowly northward across the western U.S. To the east of the ridge, north-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the central Plains. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across eastern Kansas and western Missouri, along which moderate instability is expected by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm near this axis of instability, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. Along the axis, the RAP is currently forecasting MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 35 knots and low to mid-level lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will be conducive for strong thunderstorms capable of hail and isolated wind damage. Marginally severe cells are expected to move southward across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Eastern North Dakota/Northwest Minnesota... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the north-central U.S. today. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across eastern North Dakota. As surface heating takes place, instability will develop along and near this axis, with isolated convective initiation likely taking place. The HRRR suggests that one or two cells could develop and move south-southeastward across eastern North Dakota or northwestern Minnesota during the late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Grand Forks at 21Z have MLCAPE around 500 J/kg with 0-6km shear near 50 knots. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to be around 8 C/km. This environment will support an isolated potential for supercells, with hail and a few marginally severe wind gusts possible. ...Arizona... A mid-level anticyclone will remain over the Desert Southwest today. As surface temperatures warm, instability will likely develop across much of southern Arizona. Thunderstorms are expected to form along and south of the Mogollon Rim late this afternoon, and spread southwestward into southern and central Arizona. The RAP suggests 0-3 km lapse rates will be near 10 C/km, with MLCAPE peaking between 500 and 1000 J/kg. This would support a marginal wind-damage threat with the more intense cells late this afternoon and early this evening. ..Broyles.. 07/23/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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