LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS...GEORGIA...EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...AND
ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail
will be possible today in parts of the Carolinas, Georgia, eastern
Kansas, southern Missouri, eastern North Dakota and northwestern
Minnesota. A few strong wind gusts could also occur in Arizona.
...Carolinas/Georgia...
An upper-level trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass with surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will be located from the
eastern Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas. As surface
temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms will initiate in the Blue
Ridge Mountains around midday. Storm coverage will increase as
storms move eastward into the lower elevations this afternoon. RAP
forecast soundings late this afternoon at Spartanburg and Columbia,
South Carolina have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 25
to 30 knot range, 0-3 km lapse rates near 7 C/km and DCAPE around
500 J/kg. This will support a marginal wind-damage threat with the
stronger multicells. A severe threat could develop further east into
the Atlantic coastal areas by early evening.
...Central Plains/Ozarks...
An upper-level ridge will build slowly northward across the western
U.S. To the east of the ridge, north-northwesterly mid-level flow
will be in place across the central Plains. At the surface, an axis
of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across eastern Kansas
and western Missouri, along which moderate instability is expected
by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm near this axis of
instability, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon. Along the axis, the RAP is currently
forecasting MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 35 knots and
low to mid-level lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will be
conducive for strong thunderstorms capable of hail and isolated wind
damage. Marginally severe cells are expected to move southward
across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri during the late
afternoon and early evening.
...Eastern North Dakota/Northwest Minnesota...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the
north-central U.S. today. At the surface, an axis of maximized
low-level moisture is forecast across eastern North Dakota. As
surface heating takes place, instability will develop along and near
this axis, with isolated convective initiation likely taking place.
The HRRR suggests that one or two cells could develop and move
south-southeastward across eastern North Dakota or northwestern
Minnesota during the late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near
Grand Forks at 21Z have MLCAPE around 500 J/kg with 0-6km shear near
50 knots. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to be around
8 C/km. This environment will support an isolated potential for
supercells, with hail and a few marginally severe wind gusts
possible.
...Arizona...
A mid-level anticyclone will remain over the Desert Southwest today.
As surface temperatures warm, instability will likely develop across
much of southern Arizona. Thunderstorms are expected to form along
and south of the Mogollon Rim late this afternoon, and spread
southwestward into southern and central Arizona. The RAP suggests
0-3 km lapse rates will be near 10 C/km, with MLCAPE peaking between
500 and 1000 J/kg. This would support a marginal wind-damage threat
with the more intense cells late this afternoon and early this
evening.
..Broyles.. 07/23/2023
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