Temps | Gusts | WU KORD KPWK

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...




Cardinal SAT


MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, July 16, 2023

SPC Jul 16, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI...AND ALSO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible across portions of the Northeast this afternoon, while scattered large hail and severe wind will be possible across the Central Plains and portions of the Midwest. ...Northeast/Southern New England and Mid-Atlantic States... Widespread precipitation, with embedded stronger convective elements, continues across eastern portions of the mid-Atlantic region northeast into New England at 16z. Widespread cloud cover/limited heating has tempered destabilization of a very moist air mass (PW in excess of 2 inches), however weak MLCAPE (500 to locally near 1000 J/kg) is expected through this afternoon, which will remain sufficient for a few stronger storms to persist. Low-level shear will also remain supportive of mostly transient low-level rotation and some continued tornado risk through mid afternoon. ...Central Plains/Midwest... A persistent low-level jet will continue to provide a moist/unstable inflow into the MCS over eastern KS/western MO, and diurnal heating downstream over central MO will result in moderate/strong MLCAPE as this MCS continues moving east-southeast over the next few hours. Mid-level flow of 30-40 kts will provide sufficient shear to maintain some degree of organization with at least some risk for damaging winds this afternoon. The Marginal Risk has been expanded northwest towards the Black Hills Region of SD, where isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon/evening. Northwesterly mid-level flow of 40-50 kts will support supercell potential with a risk for severe hail and strong wind gusts. ...North Texas/Southern Oklahoma to ArkLaTex/Middle Gulf Coast... A persistent MCS continues along the Red River late this morning, with isolated severe winds reported over the past hour. Daytime heating of an exceptionally moist air mass will contribute to strong/locally extreme instability by afternoon downstream towards the Arklatex, and despite marginal shear this convective system will likely maintain its structure while moving southeast this afternoon. At least isolated damaging winds will be possible with this MCS through the afternoon, and also with additional storms/clusters that may develop towards the middle Gulf Coast within an uncapped air mass. ..Bunting/Weinman.. 07/16/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)