LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
KANSAS AND MISSOURI...AND ALSO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes will be possible across portions of the Northeast
this afternoon, while scattered large hail and severe wind will be
possible across the Central Plains and portions of the Midwest.
...Northeast/Southern New England and Mid-Atlantic States...
Widespread precipitation, with embedded stronger convective
elements, continues across eastern portions of the mid-Atlantic
region northeast into New England at 16z. Widespread cloud
cover/limited heating has tempered destabilization of a very moist
air mass (PW in excess of 2 inches), however weak MLCAPE (500 to
locally near 1000 J/kg) is expected through this afternoon, which
will remain sufficient for a few stronger storms to persist.
Low-level shear will also remain supportive of mostly transient
low-level rotation and some continued tornado risk through mid
afternoon.
...Central Plains/Midwest...
A persistent low-level jet will continue to provide a moist/unstable
inflow into the MCS over eastern KS/western MO, and diurnal heating
downstream over central MO will result in moderate/strong MLCAPE as
this MCS continues moving east-southeast over the next few hours.
Mid-level flow of 30-40 kts will provide sufficient shear to
maintain some degree of organization with at least some risk for
damaging winds this afternoon.
The Marginal Risk has been expanded northwest towards the Black
Hills Region of SD, where isolated thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon/evening. Northwesterly mid-level flow of 40-50 kts will
support supercell potential with a risk for severe hail and strong
wind gusts.
...North Texas/Southern Oklahoma to ArkLaTex/Middle Gulf Coast...
A persistent MCS continues along the Red River late this morning,
with isolated severe winds reported over the past hour. Daytime
heating of an exceptionally moist air mass will contribute to
strong/locally extreme instability by afternoon downstream towards
the Arklatex, and despite marginal shear this convective system will
likely maintain its structure while moving southeast this afternoon.
At least isolated damaging winds will be possible with this MCS
through the afternoon, and also with additional storms/clusters that
may develop towards the middle Gulf Coast within an uncapped air
mass.
..Bunting/Weinman.. 07/16/2023
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