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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, July 16, 2023

SPC Jul 16, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible across portions of the Northeast. Scattered large hail and severe wind is possible across the Central Plains. ...Northeast/Southern New England and Mid-Atlantic States... An extremely moist airmass exists across the region 1.9-2.2 inch Precipitable Water values and middle 70s F surface dewpoints from the Carolinas to New England. Multiple relatively subtle low-amplitude disturbances appear to be generally moving east-northeastward over the region this morning amidst trough-preceding moderately strong deep-layer southwesterly flow. Considerable cloud cover and scattered early day convection will tend to temper overall buoyancy, but even so, diurnal heating and even minimal cloud breaks should enhanced updraft intensities through the morning into afternoon, with a corresponding increase in severe risk. The strongest low/mid-tropospheric winds (1-3km AGL in particular) will be focused from the southern New York/northern New Jersey areas into southern New England. This is where the potential for a few tornadoes should be maximized today, particularly this morning through early/mid-afternoon, coincident with 100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. The potential for locally damaging winds will otherwise exist across a broad part of the region. ...Central Plains/Midwest... Multiple clusters of storms are ongoing early today across southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas. A general persistence of the storms may occur today across Missouri with an increasing severe risk into the afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes. Across central Kansas, confidence is higher for a very unstable airmass to develop ahead of potential storm development late this afternoon into evening. Strong instability and 45-50 kt of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with the potential for some very large (2+ inch) hail. Storms may eventually congeal into a cluster across central Kansas with an increasing damaging wind threat into the evening. ...North Texas/Southern Oklahoma to ArkLaTex/Middle Gulf Coast... A slow-moving/loosely organized cluster of storms along and south of the Red River may persist east/southeastward today, with other peripheral/preceding development possible. This will be within a very unstable air mass with temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the upper 70s, yielding 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Damaging wind gusts will be possible given the degree of instability across the region. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 07/16/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)