LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes will be possible across portions of the Northeast.
Scattered large hail and severe wind is possible across the Central
Plains.
...Northeast/Southern New England and Mid-Atlantic States...
An extremely moist airmass exists across the region 1.9-2.2 inch
Precipitable Water values and middle 70s F surface dewpoints from
the Carolinas to New England. Multiple relatively subtle
low-amplitude disturbances appear to be generally moving
east-northeastward over the region this morning amidst
trough-preceding moderately strong deep-layer southwesterly flow.
Considerable cloud cover and scattered early day convection will
tend to temper overall buoyancy, but even so, diurnal heating and
even minimal cloud breaks should enhanced updraft intensities
through the morning into afternoon, with a corresponding increase in
severe risk. The strongest low/mid-tropospheric winds (1-3km AGL in
particular) will be focused from the southern New York/northern New
Jersey areas into southern New England. This is where the potential
for a few tornadoes should be maximized today, particularly this
morning through early/mid-afternoon, coincident with 100-200 m2/s2
0-1 km SRH. The potential for locally damaging winds will otherwise
exist across a broad part of the region.
...Central Plains/Midwest...
Multiple clusters of storms are ongoing early today across southeast
Nebraska and northeast Kansas. A general persistence of the storms
may occur today across Missouri with an increasing severe risk into
the afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes.
Across central Kansas, confidence is higher for a very unstable
airmass to develop ahead of potential storm development late this
afternoon into evening. Strong instability and 45-50 kt of effective
shear will support supercell storm mode with the potential for some
very large (2+ inch) hail. Storms may eventually congeal into a
cluster across central Kansas with an increasing damaging wind
threat into the evening.
...North Texas/Southern Oklahoma to ArkLaTex/Middle Gulf Coast...
A slow-moving/loosely organized cluster of storms along and south of
the Red River may persist east/southeastward today, with other
peripheral/preceding development possible. This will be within a
very unstable air mass with temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in
the upper 70s, yielding 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Damaging wind gusts
will be possible given the degree of instability across the region.
..Guyer/Kerr.. 07/16/2023
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SsGC16
