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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, July 16, 2023

SPC Jul 16, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS INTO MISSOURI...AND OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A brief/weak tornado will be possible across portions of the Northeast this afternoon, while scattered large hail and severe wind will be possible across the Central Plains and portions of the Midwest. ...Northeast... Low-level shear continues to decrease over New England, though instability remains. As such have reduced tornado probabilities, although heating over NY/VT may yield a few strong cells in the weaker shear area. The strong low-level shear has shifted primarily northeast of where the more favorable instability resides. ...Sabine Valley into the mid MS Valley... A corridor of strong instability exists ahead of ongoing strong to severe storms now near the AR/LA border. These may pose a damaging wind threat as they likely persist today, traveling southeastward across northern LA. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1578. Farther north, scattered strong cells persist over east-central MO, where strong outflow winds have been observed. The air mass remains unstable eastward into IL, and both strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg and around 30 kt effective shear. ...Central/Northern Plains... Strong heating continues over the region, with increasing CU noted on satellite near the boundary in KS. Convection is also growing over the Black Hills area, through storm coverage should remain isolated there. Favorable 50 kt effective shear will conditionally favor hail cells. The greatest threat area continues to be over KS where heating continues and the air mass is most unstable south of the front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1579. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023/ ...Northeast/Southern New England and Mid-Atlantic States... Widespread precipitation, with embedded stronger convective elements, continues across eastern portions of the mid-Atlantic region northeast into New England at 16z. Widespread cloud cover/limited heating has tempered destabilization of a very moist air mass (PW in excess of 2 inches), however weak MLCAPE (500 to locally near 1000 J/kg) is expected through this afternoon, which will remain sufficient for a few stronger storms to persist. Low-level shear will also remain supportive of mostly transient low-level rotation and some continued tornado risk through mid afternoon. ...Central Plains/Midwest... A persistent low-level jet will continue to provide a moist/unstable inflow into the MCS over eastern KS/western MO, and diurnal heating downstream over central MO will result in moderate/strong MLCAPE as this MCS continues moving east-southeast over the next few hours. Mid-level flow of 30-40 kts will provide sufficient shear to maintain some degree of organization with at least some risk for damaging winds this afternoon. The Marginal Risk has been expanded northwest towards the Black Hills Region of SD, where isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon/evening. Northwesterly mid-level flow of 40-50 kts will support supercell potential with a risk for severe hail and strong wind gusts. ...North Texas/Southern Oklahoma to ArkLaTex/Middle Gulf Coast... A persistent MCS continues along the Red River late this morning, with isolated severe winds reported over the past hour. Daytime heating of an exceptionally moist air mass will contribute to strong/locally extreme instability by afternoon downstream towards the Arklatex, and despite marginal shear this convective system will likely maintain its structure while moving southeast this afternoon. At least isolated damaging winds will be possible with this MCS through the afternoon, and also with additional storms/clusters that may develop towards the middle Gulf Coast within an uncapped air mass. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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