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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, July 15, 2023

SPC Jul 15, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the High Plains of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains. Hail and wind are the main threats with this activity. Isolated strong storms may also be noted across portions of the Appalachian region. ...Eastern NM/West TX... Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been occurring overnight across much of the TX Panhandle. This activity will dissipate later this morning, but leave a surface outflow boundary that stretches from south of LBB into eastern NM. The air mass to the north of this boundary should recover later today, as dewpoints in the 60s and south-southeasterly low-level winds provide a moist upslope flow into the Raton ridge area of northeast NM. Large scale forcing is subtle, but thunderstorm development is expected over the mountains on northeast NM and spread southeastward toward the TX Panhandle by evening. 25-30 knot northwest flow aloft, coupled with moderate CAPE values and very steep mid-level lapse rates, will be favorable for a few supercells capable of large hail. However, storms are likely to congeal into bowing structures with an increased risk of damaging winds ...Ohio Valley/Appalachians... A broad upper trough is present today over much of the eastern states. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from lower MI into IN/KY/TN ahead of a weak cold front. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep and widespread clouds will limit daytime heating/destabilization. This suggests that despite considerable coverage of thunderstorms today over the region, most of the activity will remain below severe limits. Nevertheless, pockets of greater heating or mesoscale organization of convective clusters could result in locally strong/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Kerr.. 07/15/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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