LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the High Plains of eastern
New Mexico into the Texas South Plains today, where isolated very
large hail and significant damaging wind gusts will be possible.
Isolated strong to severe storms may also be noted from the
Tennessee and Ohio Valley region to the mid-Atlantic and northeast
states.
...Eastern NM/West TX...
An outflow boundary resulting from overnight storms extended from
northeast NM into the southern TX Panhandle this morning, and was
continuing to move west towards the higher terrain of northeast NM.
Clearing/heating of a moist air mass to the north of this boundary,
in combination with mid-level lapse rates of around 8 deg C/km, will
result in MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg by afternoon. Large scale
forcing is subtle, but thunderstorm development is expected over the
mountains of northeast NM, with storms spreading southeastward
toward the TX Panhandle this evening. Northwesterly mid-level flow
will result in ample shear for supercells capable of large to very
large hail initially, with damaging winds becoming increasingly
likely as storms congeal into a southeast-moving MCS with time. A
small significant hail area has been introduced where initial
supercell development is most probable, and a significant wind area
has been introduced based on the 12z HREF CAM guidance and where
higher confidence exists in 65 kt/75 mph gusts occurring.
...Ohio Valley/Appalachians to Northeast...
Broadly cyclonic upper-level flow will persist over much of the
eastern U.S. today. Thunderstorms are expected to develop, or
diurnally intensify, along and ahead of a cold front as it moves
steadily east this afternoon. In addition, somewhat greater
coverage is expected in association with a mid-level impulse moving
east through KY/TN. A rather broad area will exist of at least
moderate MLCAPE and sufficient mid-level flow for some degree of
storm organization, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded east
across portions the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. Where
pockets of greater heating can occur, locally higher MLCAPE and
steep low-level lapse rates will support a risk for damaging wind
gusts.
...Central Nebraska...
Thunderstorms may develop in the 10z-12z time frame Sunday morning
within a low-level warm/moist advection regime over central NE.
Although some potential for strong storms will exist, have opted not
to introduce a Marginal Risk area with this outlook due to concerns
regarding the degree of elevated instability.
..Bunting/Weinman.. 07/15/2023
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