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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, July 15, 2023

SPC Jul 15, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the High Plains of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains. Hail and wind are the main threats with this activity. Isolated strong storms may also be noted across portions of the Appalachian region. ...Southern High Plains... Upper ridge will hold across the Great Basin this weekend with a strong upper trough forecast to dig toward the upper Great Lakes region. This flow regime will ensure seasonally strong northwesterly flow continues across the High Plains. Latest model guidance suggests 25-30kt of 500mb flow will extend across eastern CO into northeastern NM. Although it's not obvious any meaningful short-wave trough will approach the southern High Plains, strong surface heating and orographic influences will lead to late afternoon convection. Forecast soundings along the higher terrain exhibit upslope flow with surface-6km shear on the order of 30kt, likely sufficient for organized updrafts. Isolated supercells should evolve over southern CO into northeast NM by late afternoon. This activity will propagate south-southeast and possibly grow upscale into a larger complex of storms as they approach the NM/TX border during the evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. Strong surface heating across north-central TX will lead to minimal CINH as temperatures rise through the upper 90s to near 100F. Forecast sounding for SEP at 23z exhibits MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg with steep lapse rates and modestly high cloud bases. Gusty winds could accompany this activity. ...Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Broad upper troughing will persist across the eastern US Saturday. Associated surface front is forecast to advance into IN-western KY/TN by 18z. Large-scale forcing along this boundary should aid convective development as moist profiles and weak inhibition will be noted through the period. Forecast soundings suggest weak lapse rates will limit buoyancy but modest shear will support some organization potential. Gusty winds are the primary risk with convection across this region. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 07/15/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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