LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the High Plains
of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains. Hail and wind are
the main threats with this activity. Isolated strong storms may also
be noted across portions of the Appalachian region.
...Southern High Plains...
Upper ridge will hold across the Great Basin this weekend with a
strong upper trough forecast to dig toward the upper Great Lakes
region. This flow regime will ensure seasonally strong northwesterly
flow continues across the High Plains. Latest model guidance
suggests 25-30kt of 500mb flow will extend across eastern CO into
northeastern NM. Although it's not obvious any meaningful short-wave
trough will approach the southern High Plains, strong surface
heating and orographic influences will lead to late afternoon
convection. Forecast soundings along the higher terrain exhibit
upslope flow with surface-6km shear on the order of 30kt, likely
sufficient for organized updrafts. Isolated supercells should evolve
over southern CO into northeast NM by late afternoon. This activity
will propagate south-southeast and possibly grow upscale into a
larger complex of storms as they approach the NM/TX border during
the evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks.
Strong surface heating across north-central TX will lead to minimal
CINH as temperatures rise through the upper 90s to near 100F.
Forecast sounding for SEP at 23z exhibits MLCAPE in excess of 2500
J/kg with steep lapse rates and modestly high cloud bases. Gusty
winds could accompany this activity.
...Ohio Valley/Appalachians...
Broad upper troughing will persist across the eastern US Saturday.
Associated surface front is forecast to advance into IN-western
KY/TN by 18z. Large-scale forcing along this boundary should aid
convective development as moist profiles and weak inhibition will be
noted through the period. Forecast soundings suggest weak lapse
rates will limit buoyancy but modest shear will support some
organization potential. Gusty winds are the primary risk with
convection across this region.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 07/15/2023
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