LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds, with gusts over 75
mph likely, and large hail are forecast today over portions of the
central and southern Plains. Isolated damaging gusts or marginal
hail will also be possible over parts of the Mid Atlantic and
southern New England, the Great Lakes, and the Mid-Mississippi
Valley.
...Central and southern Plains...
An ongoing cluster of severe storms was located over
southwest/south-central NE at 16z, with a history of large hail and,
more recently, severe gusts. This small complex is within a zone of
warm advection in the 850 to 700-mb layer, and will likely continue
moving southeastward along an instability gradient this afternoon
and evening. Aided by steep lapse rates in the midlevels and
strong-locally extreme MLCAPE across central KS/central and eastern
OK this afternoon, an expected evolution into a fast-moving MCS with
significant severe wind gust potential is anticipated. The Enhanced
Risk was expanded west over KS based on morning CAM guidance, and
also adjusted slightly southward over OK. The Slight and Marginal
Risk areas were also expanded south as well-organized and
fast-moving MCSs often persist longer than reflected in some
operational guidance. Given the CAPE-shear parameter space,
supercell potential will also exist with this MCS and an attendant
risk for large hail.
Farther west, isolated supercell development appears possible across
southeast WY/northeast CO late today, along the southern fringe of
stronger WNW mid-level flow. Large hail will be possible.
...MO/IA/IL/WI...
A cold front will move into parts of southern IA, northern MO,
northwest IL, and southern WI by afternoon, and scattered
thunderstorm development is expected in the vicinity of the front.
Moderately strong westerly mid-level winds and ample CAPE will
promote a few organized clusters capable of hail and damaging wind
gusts for a few hours through this evening.
...East Coast from NC to New England...
Diurnal heating of a moist air mass (dew points averaging upper
60s-mid 70s) will lead to moderate CAPE across a rather large area
this afternoon. A weak shortwave trough will approach the
mid-Atlantic states this afternoon, contributing to the development
of widely scattered thunderstorms from NC across the Mid-Atlantic
into southern New England. Winds aloft will be relatively weak
(25-30 knots), but the potential will exist for a few slow-moving
multicell clusters capable of gusty/damaging winds this afternoon
and early evening.
..Bunting/Weinman.. 07/14/2023
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