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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, July 14, 2023

SPC Jul 14, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds, with gusts over 75 mph likely, and large hail are forecast today over portions of the central and southern Plains. Isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail will also be possible over parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England, the Great Lakes, and the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Central and southern Plains... An ongoing cluster of severe storms was located over southwest/south-central NE at 16z, with a history of large hail and, more recently, severe gusts. This small complex is within a zone of warm advection in the 850 to 700-mb layer, and will likely continue moving southeastward along an instability gradient this afternoon and evening. Aided by steep lapse rates in the midlevels and strong-locally extreme MLCAPE across central KS/central and eastern OK this afternoon, an expected evolution into a fast-moving MCS with significant severe wind gust potential is anticipated. The Enhanced Risk was expanded west over KS based on morning CAM guidance, and also adjusted slightly southward over OK. The Slight and Marginal Risk areas were also expanded south as well-organized and fast-moving MCSs often persist longer than reflected in some operational guidance. Given the CAPE-shear parameter space, supercell potential will also exist with this MCS and an attendant risk for large hail. Farther west, isolated supercell development appears possible across southeast WY/northeast CO late today, along the southern fringe of stronger WNW mid-level flow. Large hail will be possible. ...MO/IA/IL/WI... A cold front will move into parts of southern IA, northern MO, northwest IL, and southern WI by afternoon, and scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the vicinity of the front. Moderately strong westerly mid-level winds and ample CAPE will promote a few organized clusters capable of hail and damaging wind gusts for a few hours through this evening. ...East Coast from NC to New England... Diurnal heating of a moist air mass (dew points averaging upper 60s-mid 70s) will lead to moderate CAPE across a rather large area this afternoon. A weak shortwave trough will approach the mid-Atlantic states this afternoon, contributing to the development of widely scattered thunderstorms from NC across the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. Winds aloft will be relatively weak (25-30 knots), but the potential will exist for a few slow-moving multicell clusters capable of gusty/damaging winds this afternoon and early evening. ..Bunting/Weinman.. 07/14/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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