LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN
MISSOURI...AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing damaging wind and hail are forecast
today over much of the central Plains. Isolated damaging gusts or
marginal hail will also be possible over parts of the Mid Atlantic
and southern New England, the Great Lakes, and the Mid-Mississippi
Valley.
...Central Plains...
Morning water vapor imagery and model guidance show a mid-level
shortwave trough over NE/SD. A large area of showers and
thunderstorms is associated with this trough over NE. Outflow from
this convection and large scale forcing will lead to frontogenesis
over NE this morning, with the cold front sagging southward into KS
by early afternoon. A very moist and unstable air mass will develop
ahead of the front, with forecast soundings showing very steep
mid-level lapse rates and strengthening deep-layer shear.
Thunderstorms are expected to intensify along the front and track
southeastward across much of central/eastern KS and vicinity. Early
convection may be supercellular with a risk of large hail and
damaging winds. Upscale growth into a bowing MCS is likely by
evening, with an increased risk of widespread strong/damaging wind
gusts. Therefore have added an ENH risk for this scenario. It is
uncertain how far southeast this activity will maintain severe
intensity this evening/tonight, but have expanded SLGT into
northwest AR and more of eastern OK.
...MO/IA/IL/WI...
The aforementioned surface cold front will move into parts of
southern IA, northern MO, northwest IL, and southern WI by
afternoon, where scattered thunderstorm development is expected.
Moderately strong westerly mid-level winds and ample CAPE will
promote a few organized clusters capable of hail and damaging wind
gusts for a few hours into the evening.
...East Coast from NC to New England...
Hot and humid conditions will lead to moderate CAPE across a large
area of the eastern US today. A weak shortwave trough over WV will
promote the development of widely scattered thunderstorms from NC
across the Mid-Atlantic area into southern New England. Winds aloft
will be relatively weak (25-30 knots), but the potential will exist
for a few slow-moving multicell clusters capable of gusty/damaging
wind gusts this afternoon and early evening.
..Hart/Kerr.. 07/14/2023
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