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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, July 14, 2023

SPC Jul 14, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing damaging wind and hail are forecast today over much of the central Plains. Isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail will also be possible over parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England, the Great Lakes, and the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Central Plains... Morning water vapor imagery and model guidance show a mid-level shortwave trough over NE/SD. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is associated with this trough over NE. Outflow from this convection and large scale forcing will lead to frontogenesis over NE this morning, with the cold front sagging southward into KS by early afternoon. A very moist and unstable air mass will develop ahead of the front, with forecast soundings showing very steep mid-level lapse rates and strengthening deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify along the front and track southeastward across much of central/eastern KS and vicinity. Early convection may be supercellular with a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Upscale growth into a bowing MCS is likely by evening, with an increased risk of widespread strong/damaging wind gusts. Therefore have added an ENH risk for this scenario. It is uncertain how far southeast this activity will maintain severe intensity this evening/tonight, but have expanded SLGT into northwest AR and more of eastern OK. ...MO/IA/IL/WI... The aforementioned surface cold front will move into parts of southern IA, northern MO, northwest IL, and southern WI by afternoon, where scattered thunderstorm development is expected. Moderately strong westerly mid-level winds and ample CAPE will promote a few organized clusters capable of hail and damaging wind gusts for a few hours into the evening. ...East Coast from NC to New England... Hot and humid conditions will lead to moderate CAPE across a large area of the eastern US today. A weak shortwave trough over WV will promote the development of widely scattered thunderstorms from NC across the Mid-Atlantic area into southern New England. Winds aloft will be relatively weak (25-30 knots), but the potential will exist for a few slow-moving multicell clusters capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. ..Hart/Kerr.. 07/14/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)