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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, June 23, 2023

SPC Jun 23, 2023 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with wind damage, isolated large hail and perhaps a tornado or two, will be possible from parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Saturday, as a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates eastward through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a front will move eastward into the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. The moist airmass ahead of the front will gradually heat up during the day, resulting in a corridor of moderate instability by afternoon from northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri and Iowa. Convective initiation appears likely to occur on the northern edge of the stronger instability from southeastern Nebraska into western Iowa during the late morning and early afternoon. The storms are forecast to move eastward across Iowa during the afternoon and should develop southward into northern and central Missouri during the late afternoon and early evening. NAM forecast soundings by late Saturday afternoon, in south-central Iowa along the instability axis, have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.0 C/km. This, combined with 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Low-level flow is forecast to gradually increase during the late afternoon and early evening, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity reaching 250 m2/s2 in parts of southern and central Iowa. This is expected to support a tornado threat with the stronger rotating storms. In addition, a wind-damage threat will likely occur with supercells and/or short bowing line segments. Further south into northern and central Missouri, low to mid-level temperatures are forecast to be considerably warmer, with 700 mb temperatures from +11 to +13 C. This, combined with a lack of large-scale ascent, should keep convective coverage isolated during the late afternoon and early evening. However, any supercell that can develop within this moist and unstable airmass should be associated with a severe threat. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats in most areas across Missouri. ..Broyles.. 06/23/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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