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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, June 23, 2023

SPC Jun 23, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AN AREA CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms -- capable of producing very large hail and strong/damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two -- are forecast from southeastern Montana and eastern Wyoming into southwestern South Dakota and central Nebraska this afternoon and tonight. ...Northern High Plains into Nebraska... As convection currently ongoing across the northern High Plains shifts northeastward across the Dakotas and Nebraska early in the period, daytime heating is expected to commence across the northern High Plains region, resulting in moderate destabilization. As a short-wave trough shifts across the Intermountain West toward the northern High Plains, afternoon/early evening storm development is forecast. With increasing mid-level southwesterlies spreading atop low-level easterly/southeasterly flow, initial storms will likely become supercells, accompanied by large hail, as well as potential for strong wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Multiple clusters of storms should evolve with time, possibly merging into one or more larger MCSs as a 45 kt southerly low-level jet evolves across the central Plains. As the convection shifts eastward across southern South Dakota and Nebraska, damaging wind gusts would likely become more widespread, along with continued hail potential. At least MRGL risk may persist well into the overnight hours, possibly affecting the Mid Missouri Valley late in the period. ...Southern High Plains... Afternoon heating across the southern High Plains will contribute to moderate destabilization, though the boundary layer will likely remain capped for the most part. By late in the day, isolated storms may develop from northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Any storm which can develop would likely become supercellular, given 30 to 40 kt mid-level westerlies atop southerly flow prevailing over this region. Given the fairly deep mixed layer, a couple of damaging wind gusts will be possible, along with potential for large hail. Some CAM guidance hints at upscale growth into an MCS, spreading eastward either side of the Red River Valley. As such, an eastward expansion of wind probabilities is being included at this time. ..Goss/Lyons.. 06/23/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)