LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AN AREA
CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms -- capable of producing very large
hail and strong/damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two -- are
forecast from southeastern Montana and eastern Wyoming into
southwestern South Dakota and central Nebraska this afternoon and
tonight.
...Northern High Plains into Nebraska...
As convection currently ongoing across the northern High Plains
shifts northeastward across the Dakotas and Nebraska early in the
period, daytime heating is expected to commence across the northern
High Plains region, resulting in moderate destabilization. As a
short-wave trough shifts across the Intermountain West toward the
northern High Plains, afternoon/early evening storm development is
forecast. With increasing mid-level southwesterlies spreading atop
low-level easterly/southeasterly flow, initial storms will likely
become supercells, accompanied by large hail, as well as potential
for strong wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two.
Multiple clusters of storms should evolve with time, possibly
merging into one or more larger MCSs as a 45 kt southerly low-level
jet evolves across the central Plains. As the convection shifts
eastward across southern South Dakota and Nebraska, damaging wind
gusts would likely become more widespread, along with continued hail
potential. At least MRGL risk may persist well into the overnight
hours, possibly affecting the Mid Missouri Valley late in the
period.
...Southern High Plains...
Afternoon heating across the southern High Plains will contribute to
moderate destabilization, though the boundary layer will likely
remain capped for the most part. By late in the day, isolated
storms may develop from northeastern New Mexico into the Texas
Panhandle. Any storm which can develop would likely become
supercellular, given 30 to 40 kt mid-level westerlies atop southerly
flow prevailing over this region. Given the fairly deep mixed
layer, a couple of damaging wind gusts will be possible, along with
potential for large hail.
Some CAM guidance hints at upscale growth into an MCS, spreading
eastward either side of the Red River Valley. As such, an eastward
expansion of wind probabilities is being included at this time.
..Goss/Lyons.. 06/23/2023
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