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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, June 23, 2023

SPC Jun 23, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move across the Great Lakes region on Monday, as an associated trough moves into the upper Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F, will likely be in place from the Carolinas north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Moderate instability is forecast to develop across much of this moist airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms that form in the higher terrain will move east-northeastward into the Appalachian foothills during the afternoon. The instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates will likely result in a some severe storms. Wind damage and hail are expected to be the primary threats. ...Tuesday/Day 5 and Wednesday/Day 6... On Tuesday and Wednesday, a typical summertime ridge is forecast across the Great Plains. An axis of moisture and instability is expected to setup beneath the upper-level ridge. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop along and near the instability axis during the afternoon and evening. Although a severe threat will be possible in parts of the central and northern Plains on both days, predictability remains low concerning the magnitude and spacing of any potential severe threat. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... The upper ridge is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday and Friday, as an upper-level trough moves southeastward into the north-central states. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture and instability is forecast to be sufficient for isolated severe thunderstorms each afternoon. The severe-threat potential will depend upon the timing of the upper-level system, and distribution of moisture and instability. At this time, predictability concerning these factors appears to be low. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)