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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, June 22, 2023

SPC Jun 22, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast mainly this afternoon into the evening across parts of the central and southern High Plains, with a threat of large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches in diameter), severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue to meander across the southern Appalachians/OH Valley during the period. A mid-level ridge will deamplify over the southern High Plains to the north of an anticyclone over northern Mexico. Farther west, a mid-level low and associated trough along the CA coast will move east into the Great Basin/Desert Southwest by early Friday morning. In the low levels, a moist axis will extend from the TX coast northwestward into the southern High Plains and northward into the central High Plains. A weak boundary will reside from the NE Sandhills northeastward into northern MN. ...Central High Plains into the southern Great Plains... A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms may be ongoing this morning in the vicinity of the KS/CO border and move southeast into a destabilizing airmass across OK/TX Panhandle during the morning. Uncertainty is high regarding this potential thunderstorm cluster and its evolution, but have expanded low hail/wind probabilities into OK and a large portion of TX. Other widely spaced and weakly forced thunderstorm activity is expected from southeast TX westward across much of TX. A reservoir of rich low-level moisture characterized by dewpoints in the 60s over the northeast NM and eastern CO to the mid-upper 70s dewpoints across parts of TX, will foster a moderate to extremely unstable airmass by mid afternoon. A weak lead disturbance moving northeast across CO during the day with an associated belt of 30-40 kt 500-mb flow, will favor storm organization. Initial storm activity will likely develop over the higher terrain along the I-25 corridor. Supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts are possible. Slightly richer moisture protruding northwest from the TX South Plains/Panhandle into northeast NM will also favor organized severe. All severe hazards are possible with this activity before a cluster possibly evolves during the evening both near the TX/NM border and over eastern CO. ...Southern WY... Low-level easterly flow will facilitate increasing moisture westward across southern WY in the area downstream of the western U.S. trough. Strong orographic heating will favor isolated to scattered storms developing by mid afternoon. Very steep lapse rates and an inverted-v thermodynamic profile will potentially support severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts. ...Southeast... At least isolated strong to severe storms may evolve from FL into south GA and parts of the Carolinas, where rich low-level moisture will support the development of moderate buoyancy along/south of the front, despite weak midlevel lapse rates. Modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow along the eastern periphery of the mid/upper-level low may support localized damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will the strongest convection. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, low/midlevel flow will be somewhat weaker, but somewhat stronger buoyancy may support an isolated damaging-wind and hail risk. ..Smith/Wendt.. 06/22/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
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