LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast mainly this
afternoon into the evening across parts of the central and southern
High Plains, with a threat of large hail (possibly in excess of 2
inches in diameter), severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will continue to meander across the southern
Appalachians/OH Valley during the period. A mid-level ridge will
deamplify over the southern High Plains to the north of an
anticyclone over northern Mexico. Farther west, a mid-level low and
associated trough along the CA coast will move east into the Great
Basin/Desert Southwest by early Friday morning. In the low levels,
a moist axis will extend from the TX coast northwestward into the
southern High Plains and northward into the central High Plains. A
weak boundary will reside from the NE Sandhills northeastward into
northern MN.
...Central High Plains into the southern Great Plains...
A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms may be ongoing this
morning in the vicinity of the KS/CO border and move southeast into
a destabilizing airmass across OK/TX Panhandle during the morning.
Uncertainty is high regarding this potential thunderstorm cluster
and its evolution, but have expanded low hail/wind probabilities
into OK and a large portion of TX. Other widely spaced and weakly
forced thunderstorm activity is expected from southeast TX westward
across much of TX. A reservoir of rich low-level moisture
characterized by dewpoints in the 60s over the northeast NM and
eastern CO to the mid-upper 70s dewpoints across parts of TX, will
foster a moderate to extremely unstable airmass by mid afternoon. A
weak lead disturbance moving northeast across CO during the day with
an associated belt of 30-40 kt 500-mb flow, will favor storm
organization. Initial storm activity will likely develop over the
higher terrain along the I-25 corridor. Supercells capable of large
to very large hail and severe gusts are possible. Slightly richer
moisture protruding northwest from the TX South Plains/Panhandle
into northeast NM will also favor organized severe. All severe
hazards are possible with this activity before a cluster possibly
evolves during the evening both near the TX/NM border and over
eastern CO.
...Southern WY...
Low-level easterly flow will facilitate increasing moisture westward
across southern WY in the area downstream of the western U.S.
trough. Strong orographic heating will favor isolated to scattered
storms developing by mid afternoon. Very steep lapse rates and an
inverted-v thermodynamic profile will potentially support severe
gusts with the stronger downdrafts.
...Southeast...
At least isolated strong to severe storms may evolve from FL into
south GA and parts of the Carolinas, where rich low-level moisture
will support the development of moderate buoyancy along/south of the
front, despite weak midlevel lapse rates. Modestly enhanced
low/midlevel flow along the eastern periphery of the mid/upper-level
low may support localized damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
will the strongest convection. Farther south across the FL
Peninsula, low/midlevel flow will be somewhat weaker, but somewhat
stronger buoyancy may support an isolated damaging-wind and hail
risk.
..Smith/Wendt.. 06/22/2023
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