LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
As the remnants of a mid-level low emerging from the Great Basin,
and an associated belt of stronger flow, progress through somewhat
more amplified larger-scale mid-level troughing across the Southeast
this coming Wednesday into Thursday, deep-layer shear may be
potentially conducive to the evolution of organizing clusters of
storms capable of produce damaging wind gusts. However, the
influence of prior convection on the boundary-layer near and south
of a remnant frontal zone across this region becomes more unclear
during this time frame, and the predictability remains low.
Later this work week into next weekend, the ECENS and GEFS indicate
a more amplified regime evolving, including large-scale mid-level
troughing across the Pacific Coast into the Intermountain West and
downstream mid-level ridging across much of the Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley. However, it appears that seasonably moist air
may remain largely confined to parts of the Southeast into the lower
southern and central Great Plains, where increasing mid-level
inhibition and/or weakening flow may tend to suppress convective
potential.
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