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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, June 13, 2023

SPC Jun 13, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected throughout the period Tuesday, from parts of the southern Plains eastward across the Southeast. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concern. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low will remain centered over the Great Lakes region today, moving slowly east with time. South of this low, several smaller-scale perturbations will move eastward across the southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast, within a belt of fast (50 to 60 kt) mid-level westerlies stretching from the southern High Plains to the Southeast U.S. Coast. At the surface, a baroclinic zone will linger from the central High Plains southeastward into Texas, and then eastward across the Gulf Coast States/Southeast. This boundary is expected to oscillate north/south, modulated by outflow associated with passing clusters of storms. Elsewhere, widespread/primarily diurnal convection is expected over the interior West. ...North Texas/southeastern Oklahoma east-southeastward to coastal portions of South Carolina and Georgia... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from parts of Oklahoma and North Texas and eastward across the southern Arkansas/northern Louisiana vicinity. With enhanced low-level southwesterlies beneath mid-level west-northwesterly flow around 50 kt, some severe risk will accompany the storms. As the downstream airmass destabilizes through the day, this broad cluster of storms will likely be sustained. After a possible decrease in intensity through mid morning, reintensification is expected in response to the increasing instability, which suggests an overall uptick in large hail/wind risk. Embedded supercells are expected, given the seasonably strong mid-level flow, and thus risk for very large hail is evident. Expect this cluster to continue eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast states, and eventually across Georgia and southern South Carolina before moving offshore during the evening. While outflow immediately to the rear of this convection may suppress subsequent/trailing convective development, storms are expected to redevelop along the conglomerate outflow/front, from North Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast states and Southeast, eventually resulting in additional clusters of evening/overnight strong/severe storms, and associated risk for large hail and locally damaging winds. ...High Plains from southeastern Colorado to northwestern Oklahoma... Daytime heating over the higher terrain of southeastern Colorado and adjacent northeastern New Mexico will result in destabilization sufficient to support isolated convective development. With moderate (around 30 kt) mid-level westerlies across the region, some organization -- potentially resulting in mid-level rotation -- will be possible. As a result, potential for large hail and a locally damaging wind gust or two will be possible, as storms shift eastward with time toward southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into the evening. ..Goss/Bentley.. 06/13/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)