LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected throughout the period
Tuesday, from parts of the southern Plains eastward across the
Southeast. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary
concern.
...Synopsis...
A closed upper low will remain centered over the Great Lakes region
today, moving slowly east with time. South of this low, several
smaller-scale perturbations will move eastward across the southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast, within a belt of fast (50
to 60 kt) mid-level westerlies stretching from the southern High
Plains to the Southeast U.S. Coast.
At the surface, a baroclinic zone will linger from the central High
Plains southeastward into Texas, and then eastward across the Gulf
Coast States/Southeast. This boundary is expected to oscillate
north/south, modulated by outflow associated with passing clusters
of storms.
Elsewhere, widespread/primarily diurnal convection is expected over
the interior West.
...North Texas/southeastern Oklahoma east-southeastward to coastal
portions of South Carolina and Georgia...
Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from
parts of Oklahoma and North Texas and eastward across the southern
Arkansas/northern Louisiana vicinity. With enhanced low-level
southwesterlies beneath mid-level west-northwesterly flow around 50
kt, some severe risk will accompany the storms.
As the downstream airmass destabilizes through the day, this broad
cluster of storms will likely be sustained. After a possible
decrease in intensity through mid morning, reintensification is
expected in response to the increasing instability, which suggests
an overall uptick in large hail/wind risk. Embedded supercells are
expected, given the seasonably strong mid-level flow, and thus risk
for very large hail is evident. Expect this cluster to continue
eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast states,
and eventually across Georgia and southern South Carolina before
moving offshore during the evening.
While outflow immediately to the rear of this convection may
suppress subsequent/trailing convective development, storms are
expected to redevelop along the conglomerate outflow/front, from
North Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast states and Southeast,
eventually resulting in additional clusters of evening/overnight
strong/severe storms, and associated risk for large hail and locally
damaging winds.
...High Plains from southeastern Colorado to northwestern
Oklahoma...
Daytime heating over the higher terrain of southeastern Colorado and
adjacent northeastern New Mexico will result in destabilization
sufficient to support isolated convective development. With
moderate (around 30 kt) mid-level westerlies across the region, some
organization -- potentially resulting in mid-level rotation -- will
be possible. As a result, potential for large hail and a locally
damaging wind gust or two will be possible, as storms shift eastward
with time toward southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles into the evening.
..Goss/Bentley.. 06/13/2023
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