LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND VICINITY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO...AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and hail
are expected across a broad area centered over the Tennessee
Valley/Mid South. Risk for locally damaging gusts and hail will
also exist over the central High Plains vicinity and across the
Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, and across portions of
northern/northeastern Texas. A few storms capable of producing
strong wind gusts will also be possible over the central and
northern Nevada vicinity.
...Ohio/Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, and into the southern
Appalachians and central Gulf Coast region...
A short-wave trough -- embedded with seasonably strong cyclonic
westerly flow on the southern fringe of a Great Lakes upper low --
is forecast to shift across the Mississippi Valley into the Mid
South/Southeast today. As this occurs, a cold front -- aligned
roughly along the Ohio River and Ozarks region at midday -- will
shift southeastward into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys
through the afternoon and evening, and to the Appalachians and
central Gulf Coast states by the end of the period.
As daytime heating allows moderate warm-sector destabilization,
thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and just ahead of the
boundary by early afternoon, from the mid Ohio Valley west to the
Ozarks. Storms should rapidly organize into bands, supported by
relatively strong westerlies (30 to 50 kt) in the 850mb to 500mb
layer. With relatively fast easterly storm motion expected damaging
wind gusts should become increasingly widespread through the
afternoon within multiple bowing bands. Hail will also be possible,
with stronger storms.
Storms will continue into the evening hours, possibly evolving into
a larger-scale arc/band, and shifting eastward toward the
Appalachians, and southeastward across Mississippi, Alabama, and
northwestern Georgia. While damaging-wind potential will likely
continue through the evening over the Southeast, storms should
weaken farther north as they shift into more stable conditions
anticipated over the central Appalachians.
...North Texas...
Ridging aloft will prevail across the southern Plains today, which
will the boundary layer to remain capped through most of the day,
across most of the area. However, as late-afternoon temperatures
heat well into the 90s, erosion of the cap locally as a result of
boundary-layer mixing should allow isolated storms to initiate --
most likely over the North Texas area. With steep lapse rates aloft
supporting strong high-based CAPE, large hail and damaging winds
will be possible with any sustained storm, from late afternoon
through mid evening before storms diminish diurnally.
...Parts of eastern Colorado southeastward to northwestern
Oklahoma...
Thunderstorm development is expected across the Front Range vicinity
today, as afternoon heating contributes to moderate destabilization.
With moderate mid-level westerly flow atop the area, a few stronger
storms will likely evolve, and shift east-southeastward toward lower
elevations into the evening. Along with potential for locally
damaging winds, a couple of the strongest storms will be capable of
producing large hail.
...Northern and central Nevada vicinity...
As an upper low drifts northward toward/into the Great Basin,
afternoon destabilization atop a deep mixed layer will result in
development of high-based thunderstorms. While deep-layer shear
will not be particularly strong, sub-cloud evaporative effects
suggest potential for a few strong wind gusts, with westward-moving
storms. Storms will diminish in intensity through the evening.
..Goss/Bentley.. 06/11/2023
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