LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
EAST TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast today --
particularly across parts of the southern Plains, Arklatex, and
lower Mississippi Valley where damaging wind gusts and large hail
will be the primary severe risks.
...Synopsis...
While an upper low gradually departs the northeastern U.S., a trough
digging southward out of Canada toward the Upper Great Lakes/Upper
Mississippi Valley will gradually phase with a southern-stream
short-wave trough crossing the central/southern Plains. In the
West, a low initially over the eastern Pacific will gradually shift
eastward, reaching the California coast during the second half of
the period. Meanwhile, ridging will prevail from the Canadian
Prairie into the Rockies.
At the surface, a cold front will shift slowly southeastward across
the Great Lakes and eventually the Midwest, and southward across the
central Plains through the period.
...Southern Plains eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley
area...
Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period
in a loosely organized cluster from western Missouri
west-southwestward into Oklahoma. CAMs differ with the details of
the progression/evolution of this convection through the morning,
but agree in general that an increase in convective
organization/intensity will occur by midday/early afternoon as
storms cross Arkansas and the Arklatex. With a destabilizing
airmass ahead of the storms, and moderate mid-level westerly flow
spreading eastward into the area, risk for damaging winds and hail
is expected to gradually increase, eventually spreading into/across
the lower Mississippi Valley area.
Meanwhile, on the western fringe of this initial activity, CAMs --
while still differing with overall evolution -- generally agree that
additional storms will develop as destabilization occurs to the rear
of the initial convective footprint. With a very unstable airmass
expected from central into eastern Texas by mid afternoon, and flow
increasing to around 40 kt at mid levels, shear will support both
rotating storms, and organized clusters. Very large hail is
expected, along with locally damaging winds and possibly a tornado.
Some tendency for upscale growth is expected with these storms into
the evening, shifting southeastward toward the Sabine River along
with ongoing risk for hail/wind into the overnight hours.
...Central High Plains/Central Plains...
Afternoon heating/destabilization will occur today, ahead of a
southward-moving cold front and east of the high terrain of Colorado
Front Range. This will contribute to isolated storm development --
near the advancing front as well as across the Colorado High Plains.
While flow aloft will remain rather modest, a few stronger storms
may prove capable of producing gusty winds and marginal hail. With
mid-level flow out of the west, storms should progress eastward
toward lower elevations into the evening hours, accompanied by
continued/local severe potential.
..Goss.. 06/10/2023
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