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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, June 10, 2023

SPC Jun 10, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast today -- particularly across parts of the southern Plains, Arklatex, and lower Mississippi Valley where damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary severe risks. ...Synopsis... While an upper low gradually departs the northeastern U.S., a trough digging southward out of Canada toward the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley will gradually phase with a southern-stream short-wave trough crossing the central/southern Plains. In the West, a low initially over the eastern Pacific will gradually shift eastward, reaching the California coast during the second half of the period. Meanwhile, ridging will prevail from the Canadian Prairie into the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will shift slowly southeastward across the Great Lakes and eventually the Midwest, and southward across the central Plains through the period. ...Southern Plains eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley area... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period in a loosely organized cluster from western Missouri west-southwestward into Oklahoma. CAMs differ with the details of the progression/evolution of this convection through the morning, but agree in general that an increase in convective organization/intensity will occur by midday/early afternoon as storms cross Arkansas and the Arklatex. With a destabilizing airmass ahead of the storms, and moderate mid-level westerly flow spreading eastward into the area, risk for damaging winds and hail is expected to gradually increase, eventually spreading into/across the lower Mississippi Valley area. Meanwhile, on the western fringe of this initial activity, CAMs -- while still differing with overall evolution -- generally agree that additional storms will develop as destabilization occurs to the rear of the initial convective footprint. With a very unstable airmass expected from central into eastern Texas by mid afternoon, and flow increasing to around 40 kt at mid levels, shear will support both rotating storms, and organized clusters. Very large hail is expected, along with locally damaging winds and possibly a tornado. Some tendency for upscale growth is expected with these storms into the evening, shifting southeastward toward the Sabine River along with ongoing risk for hail/wind into the overnight hours. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Afternoon heating/destabilization will occur today, ahead of a southward-moving cold front and east of the high terrain of Colorado Front Range. This will contribute to isolated storm development -- near the advancing front as well as across the Colorado High Plains. While flow aloft will remain rather modest, a few stronger storms may prove capable of producing gusty winds and marginal hail. With mid-level flow out of the west, storms should progress eastward toward lower elevations into the evening hours, accompanied by continued/local severe potential. ..Goss.. 06/10/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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