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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, June 1, 2023

SPC Jun 1, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough/low now over Arizona on water-vapor imagery will continue into the Four Corners today. This feature is expected to weaken during the day. Moderate mid-level winds will exist across the southern High Plains. At the surface, ongoing precipitation Wednesday evening into Thursday morning across the Texas Panhandle should leave an outflow boundary in the vicinity of the South Plains. With the approach of the trough, a modest surface trough will develop in eastern New Mexico, helping to maintain moisture influx into the region. ...Southern High Plains... An area of precipitation is expected to continue into Thursday morning in the Texas Panhandle. Outflow from this activity should provide some focus for thunderstorm development by late morning/afternoon. Precipitation is also occurring in the Trans-Pecos due to weak mid-level ascent in the region. This activity could impact the overall convective evolution today, though most guidance has this activity diminishing before Thursday morning. Guidance is in reasonable agreement with the location of the outflow boundary, but there are differences in the timing of convective initiation. With a weak shortwave moving into the area, there is some potential for storms to form by late morning. This would have some impact on the degree of destabilization that can occur. Even with this uncertainty, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient shear (30-35 kts effective) would support supercells capable of primarily large hail, isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. The environment appears to support very large hail with supercells, though this would be more favored with initiation later in the day. The tornado threat will similarly be modulated by time of initiation, but also the degree of destabilization within the outflow to the north. ...Northern High Plains... A weak shortwave trough will move into the region along with a surface low developing in eastern Montana. Scattered convection will develop within a modestly unstable (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) environment. Flow aloft will be generally weak. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible. Coverage of severe-caliber storms still appears too limited for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt/Kerr.. 06/01/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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