LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail, isolated
severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible across
portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough/low now over Arizona on water-vapor imagery
will continue into the Four Corners today. This feature is expected
to weaken during the day. Moderate mid-level winds will exist across
the southern High Plains. At the surface, ongoing precipitation
Wednesday evening into Thursday morning across the Texas Panhandle
should leave an outflow boundary in the vicinity of the South
Plains. With the approach of the trough, a modest surface trough
will develop in eastern New Mexico, helping to maintain moisture
influx into the region.
...Southern High Plains...
An area of precipitation is expected to continue into Thursday
morning in the Texas Panhandle. Outflow from this activity should
provide some focus for thunderstorm development by late
morning/afternoon. Precipitation is also occurring in the
Trans-Pecos due to weak mid-level ascent in the region. This
activity could impact the overall convective evolution today, though
most guidance has this activity diminishing before Thursday morning.
Guidance is in reasonable agreement with the location of the outflow
boundary, but there are differences in the timing of convective
initiation. With a weak shortwave moving into the area, there is
some potential for storms to form by late morning. This would have
some impact on the degree of destabilization that can occur. Even
with this uncertainty, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient
shear (30-35 kts effective) would support supercells capable of
primarily large hail, isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado
or two. The environment appears to support very large hail with
supercells, though this would be more favored with initiation later
in the day. The tornado threat will similarly be modulated by time
of initiation, but also the degree of destabilization within the
outflow to the north.
...Northern High Plains...
A weak shortwave trough will move into the region along with a
surface low developing in eastern Montana. Scattered convection will
develop within a modestly unstable (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE)
environment. Flow aloft will be generally weak. Gusty winds and
small hail will be possible. Coverage of severe-caliber storms still
appears too limited for unconditional probabilities.
..Wendt/Kerr.. 06/01/2023
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