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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, May 30, 2023

SPC May 30, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-80 mph gusts and large hail are possible over portions of the central High Plains late this afternoon through the evening. ...Central Great Plains... Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing early this morning before likely dissipating by mid morning over NE/KS. An MCV associated with this early day convection may focus at least isolated storm development during the afternoon into the early evening over the lower MO Valley. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the pulse-like thunderstorms. Farther west, a weak mid-level disturbance is forecast to move generally east from the CO Rockies to the CO/KS border by mid evening. Initially isolated storms are forecast to develop near the Cheyenne Ridge and east of the Front Range by mid afternoon. Strong heating through mid-late afternoon will result in very steep lapse rates (8.5 deg C/km in the surface-300 mb layer). As this activity moves into slightly richer moisture (surface dewpoints in the 50s), a broken linear cluster is forecast to develop (CAM guidance consensus agrees with this notion) from southwest NE/northeast CO southward to the TX/OK Panhandles. Forecast soundings show slightly stronger mid- to high-level westerly flow from I-70 northward, which may aid in hail potential and severe-gust potential. Significant severe gusts are possible during the early phase of the loosely organized squall line. By late evening, the risk for severe gusts will likely have diminished as the gust front/cold pool become less organized as the MCS moves towards central KS/northwest OK. ...Upper MS Valley... A mid-level short-wave trough initially over the Dakotas will move east into MN during the day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near a weak surface trough by mid afternoon. With some enhancement to the mid-level west-southwesterlies associated with the upper system, a few stronger/sustained storms are expected to evolve with large hail being the primary threat. This potential should peak through late afternoon, and then diminish through the evening. ..Smith/Wendt.. 05/30/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)