LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-80 mph gusts and
large hail are possible over portions of the central High Plains
late this afternoon through the evening.
...Central Great Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing
early this morning before likely dissipating by mid morning over
NE/KS. An MCV associated with this early day convection may focus
at least isolated storm development during the afternoon into the
early evening over the lower MO Valley. Isolated severe gusts may
accompany the pulse-like thunderstorms.
Farther west, a weak mid-level disturbance is forecast to move
generally east from the CO Rockies to the CO/KS border by mid
evening. Initially isolated storms are forecast to develop near the
Cheyenne Ridge and east of the Front Range by mid afternoon. Strong
heating through mid-late afternoon will result in very steep lapse
rates (8.5 deg C/km in the surface-300 mb layer). As this activity
moves into slightly richer moisture (surface dewpoints in the 50s),
a broken linear cluster is forecast to develop (CAM guidance
consensus agrees with this notion) from southwest NE/northeast CO
southward to the TX/OK Panhandles. Forecast soundings show slightly
stronger mid- to high-level westerly flow from I-70 northward, which
may aid in hail potential and severe-gust potential. Significant
severe gusts are possible during the early phase of the loosely
organized squall line. By late evening, the risk for severe gusts
will likely have diminished as the gust front/cold pool become less
organized as the MCS moves towards central KS/northwest OK.
...Upper MS Valley...
A mid-level short-wave trough initially over the Dakotas will move
east into MN during the day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are forecast to develop near a weak surface trough by mid afternoon.
With some enhancement to the mid-level west-southwesterlies
associated with the upper system, a few stronger/sustained storms
are expected to evolve with large hail being the primary threat.
This potential should peak through late afternoon, and then diminish
through the evening.
..Smith/Wendt.. 05/30/2023
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