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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, May 9, 2023

SPC May 9, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with a large hail and damaging wind threat should occur today across parts of the southern/central Plains, and eastern North Carolina into far southeastern Virginia. ...Southern/Central Plains... Upper ridging will generally prevail over much of the Plains today, with a subtle shortwave trough forecast to advance over portions of the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. A weak surface low should remain centered over southeastern CO and vicinity through the day, with low-level moisture forecast to return northward in tandem with a diffuse warm front across KS into perhaps far southern NE. A dryline is also expected to mix eastward across the southern High Plains through this afternoon. Elevated convection may be ongoing at the start of the period later this morning in a weak low-level warm advection regime across southern NE into northern KS. With MUCAPE expected to increase across this area as the low-level moisture returns northward, these early-day thunderstorms may pose an isolated threat for large hail. If this activity can persist, it may eventually become surface based along/near the front across northern into eastern KS. An increasing threat for large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds gusts would occur if this scenario unfolds, as both instability and effective bulk shear will support supercells. Upscale growth into an MCS also appears possible, but details on convective evolution remain uncertain. Although less confidence exists in convective initiation along the front/dryline intersection in western KS and vicinity due to nebulous large-scale ascent, there still appears to be enough conditional potential to support maintaining Slight Risk caliber severe probabilities for both large hail and damaging winds across this area. The probability for any thunderstorms to develop farther south along the length of the dryline into the TX Panhandle and west TX appears highly conditional, with little convective signal in most guidance. ...Eastern Carolinas into Southeastern Virginia... A shortwave trough will move east-southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic today. A belt of enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow will accompany this feature, and provide support for sufficient deep-layer shear to foster thunderstorm organization. Although surface winds will be veered mostly to west-northwesterly across the Carolinas and southeastern VA, there should still be adequate low-level moisture in place for weak to moderate instability to develop in concert with daytime heating. Most guidance shows convection developing across parts of southeastern VA into eastern NC this afternoon along/near a surface trough. A mix of multicells and perhaps a few supercells appears possible, with a threat for both severe hail and damaging winds. A small bowing cluster may develop and pose a greater wind threat with time into eastern NC. Less confidence exists with southward extent into SC regrading overall convective coverage and intensity. ...Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast... At least one remnant MCV from prior convection will likely be present along part the TX Gulf Coast at the start of the period this morning. Although this region will be under the influence of upper ridging and large-scale subsidence, there should still be potential for scattered to numerous thunderstorms due to the presence of rich low-level moisture and the influence/subtle ascent associated with the MCV and various sea breezes. Any thunderstorms that can develop in this moderate/strong instability but weak deep-layer shear environment will have the potential to produce isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 05/09/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC