LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue May 09 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms -- capable of producing damaging
winds and hail, and potentially a couple of tornadoes -- are
expected Wednesday afternoon and evening within an area centered
over the central High Plains.
...Synopsis...
As a weak mid-level disturbance moves across the southern Plains
toward the lower Mississippi Valley, a more substantial low/trough
is forecast to move across the West. As this trough crosses
California and the Great Basin in negatively tilted fashion, low is
progged to evolve within the base of the trough over the Four
Corners region late in the day. Overnight, the low will reach the
central High Plains.
At the surface, high pressure will generally prevail over the east
of the Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front crossing the
western states should reach the High Plains during the evening,
merging with an existing lee trough/low.
...Southeastern Montana south to the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...
A modestly/seasonably moist boundary layer will be maintained across
the High Plains region Wednesday, southeasterly low-level flow
encompasses the Plains to the east of the lee trough.
Daytime heating will support afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to
2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected by mid afternoon. With a weak
upslope component to the flow, and presence of the lee trough,
expect scattered convective development to begin by mid afternoon
across portions of eastern Wyoming and the Colorado front range, and
shortly thereafter northward into southeastern Montana, and
southward across the southern High Plains in a more isolated manner.
As a meridional/southerly mid-level jet streak on the eastern
periphery of the trough spreads across the High Plains, atop
low-level southeasterlies, shear sufficient for organized/rotating
updrafts will evolve. As such, initial/cellular storm mode should
support large hail as the primary risk, though damaging winds will
also be possible locally. A couple of tornadoes will also be
possible -- particularly from the Palmer Divide of Colorado
northward across eastern Wyoming where surface winds are expected to
be more backed/easterly north of a weak lee low.
With time, storms should grow upscale locally into more
complex/banded modes, spreading northeastward off the higher
terrain. This could support some increase in wind risk into the
evening hours, before a gradual overnight nocturnal decrease in
convective intensity commences.
..Goss.. 05/09/2023
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