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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, May 8, 2023

SPC May 8, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Mon May 08 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur today from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, with damaging winds and large hail the main threats. A separate area of severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Plains. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley... An MCS will likely still be ongoing at the start of the period later this morning across parts of the mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley. Most guidance suggests this convective cluster should weaken through the late morning as it advances east-southeastward. But, an isolated threat for mainly damaging winds may persist with this activity if it can remain surface based. In the wake of the morning convection, nearly all guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will develop ahead of a front from central/southern MO northeastward across much of the OH Valley, as steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from an EML over the central Plains spread eastward. With clouds/convective debris from the morning activity probably still present over parts of this region, the degree of instability that can develop is still somewhat uncertain. However, it does appear likely that additional robust thunderstorms will form by mid to late afternoon along/south of a front, as a weak/low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the OH Valley. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for supercells with the initial development, and scattered large hail may be the initial severe hazard. With time, one or more bowing clusters will likely develop and spread southward/eastward through the late afternoon and early evening. As this mode transition occurs, severe/damaging winds will probably become the main threat. Although low-level winds are forecast to mostly veered to west-southwesterly and not overly strong, there may still be an opportunity for a tornado or two with any supercell that can be sustained. Given trends in 00Z guidance for greater instability and thunderstorm coverage across IN into eastern KY/southwestern OH and the central Appalachians, have expanded both the Marginal and Slight Risk areas east-northeastward to encompass this potential severe threat. ...Southern Plains... Similar to the last few days, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop once again late this afternoon and evening along/east of a dryline that will be located across parts of west TX. While deep-layer shear is forecast to remain quite modest, strong to very strong instability is forecast owing to robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass, and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Although convection that develops may tend to be fairly disorganized, the ample instability should aid in the development of robust updrafts and compensate to some extent for the weak deep-layer shear. A Slight Risk has been added where the greatest concentration of convection is forecast, with both large hail and severe wind gusts possible. The Marginal Risk has also been expanded eastward to include more of central into south-central TX, as some guidance suggests convection emanating from northern Mexico may persist and pose some severe risk into these areas through the evening. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 05/08/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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